Will Bangladesh Become a Failed State in 2025?

The portends for Bangladesh in 2025 are grim, while dangers of State failure appear unlikely for now, but the failing nature of the Interim Administration in multiple areas- relations with India, law and order, secure environment for business and turmoil within the military as well as civil military relations may not augur well for the future.

Bangladesh transitioned to an interim government on August 08, last year, after Professor Muhammad Yunus a renowned economist and banker was the choice made by leaders of the Anti-Reservation Students movement to head the political vacuum in the country.

Bangladesh Army backed the choice and President Mohammad Shabuddin an Awami League nominee swore in Mr Yunus along with a set of advisers.

The essential role of the interim government was seen as to establish order and ensure smooth transition to an elected government. Holding free and fair elections was thus seen as a primary objective for Mr Yunus and his advisers.

An interim government is not expected to make fundamental changes in policies which is the prerogative of an elected government.

The essential task before Mr Yunus after public faced months of turmoil was also to restore law and order, prevent crime, protect minorities, and provide a secure business environment.

However, it is evident that Mr Yunus sees himself as the head of a permanent government.

The Chief Adviser's Office (CAO) calls itself office of the ‘Head of the Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh’ and not Interim Government assuming a larger role for itself.

Foreign Policy and Economy

One of biggest policy transformations by the Yunus government is on policy towards India.

While India welcomed the formation of the Interim Administration despite the departure of long time ally in Dhaka, Sheikh Hasina, Mr Yunus seems to have taken a path of confrontation.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered his “best wishes” to Yunus, saying New Delhi was “committed” to working with neighbouring Dhaka.

“My best wishes to Professor Muhammad Yunus on the assumption of his new responsibilities,” Modi wrote on the social media platform X. “India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfil the shared aspirations of both our peoples for peace, security and development.” Greetings and pleasantries were exchanged on other important occasions, the latest one being Eid.

It is a well-known fact that for security as well as economic development, Bangladesh’s primary relationship is India.

Apart from the emotional alignment with India due to role played in the War of Liberation, it is the most consequential neighbour with over 4000 kms of land border and funnels the Bay of Bengal by its vast coastline on the Indian Ocean. Recognising the same former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had built strong relations with New Delhi which has emerged as a key economic power- the outcome steady economic growth for Bangladesh of over 6 percent in the pre COVID 19 period.

The Chief Advisor overlooked the geographical reality and reached out to Pakistan, Turkey, and China, possibly in angst of Hasina's preference for India, not realizing they cannot replace India.

Either through naivete or a deliberate slight Mr Yunus in a visit to China recently asked Chinese investors to manufacture in Bangladesh to supply India’s North East which he claimed was landlocked.

While Prime Minister Modi and the Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus held a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Bimstec Summit in Bangkok, the many differences that were discussed such as attack on minorities, distribution of river waters, border security and so on seems to have led to only minimal understanding between the two. 

The Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus seemed to have rather focused on issue of former Bangladeshi premier Sheikh Hasina's extradition during his much-awaited meeting with the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi.

One of the first actions announced by India after Prime Minister Modi’s return to Delhi was to revoke the transshipment facility for Bangladesh's export cargo to third countries transiting through its land borders to Indian airports and ports except for trade with Nepal and Bhutan. This is a two-decade old agreement.

Limiting transit will increase the cost for Bangladesh's apparel exporters delivering export orders to Western markets via India's airport, namely, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi.

Analysts ascribe this as a direct fall out of the statement by Mr Muhammad Yunus that India’s Northeast was a “landlocked” region reliant on Dhaka for access to the ocean. 

Indian move comes even as global trade tensions rise, with the US recently announcing new tariffs on both India and Bangladesh. In fact just a day prior the Trump administration declared 37% tariff increase which is expected to hit the trade with the US to a considerable extent. Bangladesh exports $8.4 billion of garments annually to the United States, according to data from the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), the national trade body.

Some garment factories have restricted their market to the US. Major manufacturers are now concerned that the industry would lose trade. Fortunately for Bangladesh Mr Trump has delayed implementation of the tariffs by 90 days.

The double whammy of increase in tariffs and restrictions on transit of goods through India is likely to hit the Bangladesh economy in the coming days and how it weathers the storm remains to be seen. World Bank in its October 2024, issue of Bangladesh Development Update said the real GDP growth of Bangladesh is estimated to have slowed to 5.2% in FY24 from 5.8% in FY23. Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.9% in fiscal year (FY) 2025, before increasing to 5.1% in FY2026, according to the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) in a report released on 09 April.

These assessments are essentially prior to the Trump Tariffs and India’s transit restrictions.

Political Situation

On the political front the Students movement has launched National Citizen Party (NCP) centring on three key demands -- the trial of the Awami League for the July killings, governance reforms, and an election to the constituent assembly.

The main opposition party, the BNP is in a disarray with multiple internal factional fights ongoing and lack of a unifying central leader as Khaleda Zia and Tariq Hussain both remain in UK and are not likely to venture a return.

The Awami League has been marginalized through attacks on its cadres and destruction of symbols of the Hasina family including that of War on Liberation.

The conservative Islamic party the Jamaat e Islami banned by Hasina is now seeing newfound hope.

Yet there are no signs of a clear winner emerging in case elections are held  by December this year or by June.

Military Challenges

Indian media recently reported that India helped Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman put down a revolt by some pro-Pakistani generals who were planning to replace him.  Lieutenant General Muhammad Faizur Rahman, the Quartermaster General (QMG) of the Bangladesh Army, was chosen to lead the coup and replace the army chief as per the report based on the agenda set by Pakistan’s ISI and the Islamist parties in the country who resented General Zaman’s proximity to Hasina.

Lt Gen S M Kamrul Hassan, is also said to have been complicit in the plans to replace General Waker-uz-Zaman.

Hassan is the Principal Staff Officer of the Armed Forces Division—a ministry-level joint forces headquarters that works in close coordination with the office of Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus. Bangladesh Army DGISPR has come out strongly against the report.

Another report in India Today claimed that the military under Zaman was planning coup to replace the Chief Advisor who was seen as ineffective to control the situation. This too was denied by the DGFI.

Hundreds of dismissed members of the erstwhile Bangladesh Rifles (now Border Guard Bangladesh, or BGB)  are demanding reinstatement to their jobs and compensation. The protesters lost their jobs following the 2009 BDR carnage. Thet claimed they were not involved in the incident and were punished without "due process". This has potential of a flare up within the military.

Internal Security and Law and Order

Bangladesh faces ongoing law and order challenges due to a combination of political instability, social tensions, and economic pressures. This has led to difficulties in maintaining public trust in law enforcement agencies, which were previously seen as aligned with the Awami League. Additionally, there have been reports of violence against religious minorities and political opponents, further complicating efforts to restore stability. In March police charged truncheons and fired teargas shells to disperse a procession taken out by banned outfit Hizb ut-Tahrir in the capital's Baitul Mukarram area. That it could have the courage to hold a rally despite the ban indicates poor intelligence and law enforcement.

In March, the government extended the magistracy power granted to commissioned officers of the armed forces with the rank of captain, its equivalent, or above for another 60 days. Additionally, the magistracy power has been extended to officers on deputation in the Bangladesh Coast Guard and Border Guard Bangladesh. This marks the fourth time the government has extended the magistracy power for commissioned officers of the armed forces at the rank of captain or higher. Prolonged deployment of the military and paramilitary in law and order deployment is inadvisable leading to weakening of professionalism, corruption and allegations of human rights violations.  Restoring law and order will require rebuilding trust in institutions, addressing economic concerns, and ensuring the protection of human rights and democratic processes.

Rohingya

Myanmar confirmed having identified 180,000 Rohingyas eligible for return out of a list of 800,000 Rohingyas in Bangladesh. Than Shew, deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Myanmar, disclosed the matter to Dr Khalilur.

Yet where would be these Rohingyas be repatriated when the Rakhine State has got only some urban pockets under control while a majority of the area is under the Ethnic Arakan Army. Bangladesh will thus continue to face the challenge of hosting large number of Rohingya with their attended impact on terrorism and crime spreading beyond the camps.

Conclusion

The Interim Administration in Bangladesh had earned the goodwill of India as well regional and international stakeholders to facilitate the task of transition. In March, visiting United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his full support for the reform process initiated by the interim government.

Many former diplomats, government officials and analysts in India including the author had hoped a better future for Bangladesh ahead only to be disappointed by the situation that has emerged on the ground.

The people of Bangladesh particularly the youth had reposed faith in Mr Yunus choosing him to head the administration.

It is now up to Yunus and his team to address the core challenges faced by the State and defocus from politically sensitive issues which can be dealt  with by an elected government.

Restoring relations with India would obviously the first priority to stability but one which does not appear to be one for the government.