Expectations of Escalation
For the past fortnight the Middle East also known as West Asia in India and geographies in the near and beyond have been on the edge expecting an escalation of an armed confrontation between Iran and Israel.
The Iranian retaliation on Israel with a view to avenge the targeting of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 is expected, though Jerusalem has not acknowledged a role in the attack.
Iran seems to be playing a strategic waiting game as for two weeks since Hamas’s political leader was assassinated in Iran, the Islamic republic has kept the region on edge.
Almost every day, a new statement of possible retaliation emerges from one of its senior political or military officials vowing to punish Israel for the killing of Haniyeh.
Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah which is aligned with Iran has also vowed to join the retributory response having suffered losses of several key commanders to Israeli air and drone strikes in the past 10 months the most recent one being the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.
Hezbollah has released a video showcasing its underground missile city for the first time indicating the large arsenal, Iran has also claimed to have a similar capability in attempts to warn Israel of the coming deluge of missile strikes.
Yet as the World is waiting with bated breath, the much dreaded attacks – expectedly a barrage of missiles, drones and rockets on Israel have not materialized.
The challenge for Tehran is how to respond robustly to appease its hardline constituency and the regional militants it backs while avoiding the direct conflict with Israel and its ally the US that it has long sought to evade.
Diplomacy
Western diplomacy has been on a high with calls from France, Germany and Britain that Iran should exercise restraint with regards to Israel. Apart from the top leaders including the Prime Ministers and Presidents of European countries, foreign ministers have also been constantly engaging with Iranian counter parts to dissuade against striking back at Israel.
However, Iran has rejected the same on the basis of lack of political logic and contradicting principles of international law which Iran believes permits retaliation.
Iran has sought the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Tehran last month to be condemned by the West and this is one of the factors that is preventing the regime from reconsidering the plans for retaliation at least publicly.
On the other hand western leaders are unwilling to condemn the killing and lay the blame on Israel which has not publicly claimed the attack
A high-ranking Russian delegation led by Sergei Shoigu, the Secretary of Russia's National Security Council was in Tehran ostensibly to seek more missiles and drones for Moscow but also for de-escalation of tensions. Ironically missile and drone supplies will dwindle if Iran launches a series of barrage on Israel.
Thus, apart from the benign intention there could be defence interests that Moscow will be looking at.
Options Under Consideration in Tehran
Iran’s military retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is thus taking longer than expected.
Reports of the new President Massoud Pezeshkian from the moderate reformist camp seeking the Supreme Authority Ayatollah Ali Khamanei to taper off a retaliatory attack on Israel have been flashed in the media. Presidential powers in Iran are relatively limited - especially in security matters.
The final decision will remain of Khamanei who will consider not only the humiliation suffered of an attack in Tehran by Israeli unclaimed so far on the external image of Iran but also the internal factors as this will be seen as weakness of the regime if no action is taken,
Thus as a minimum recompense Iran needs diplomatic cover to back away from threat to Israel. A Gaza ceasefire would allow Tehran to claim it cares more for the lives of Palestinians than it does for taking revenge.
Some government supporters on social media argue that the delay in retaliation is part of the "harsh punishment."
Some members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are frustrated with the delayed response to the Hamas leader's assassination.
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei referred to enemy’s psychological warfare against Iran and stressed the need to counter it.
Speaking to families of martyrs from the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and the officials of the National Congress for the Commemoration of the Martyrs of the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province met with Ayatollah Khamenei on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 said, "Since the victory of the Revolution, the enemies have been instilling fear in our nation through various means, suggesting that we should be afraid of the US, the UK, and the Zionists."
"As the Quran states, a non-tactical retreat in any domain—whether military, political, or economic—will incur divine wrath," he added.
In April when Iran attacked Israel for the first time ever, in response to the killing of top Iranian commanders at the Iranian diplomatic mission Syrian capital Damascus, it had announced the intent as well as the nature of the attack several days in advance that allowed Israel and the United States to make defensive arrangements.
The US had forged a coalition with France, the United Kingdom, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to jointly beat back the Iranian barrage.
This time United States has moved additional fighter planes, warships, and an aircraft carrier to the Middle East to help in Israel’s defensive interests and defend its own interests as well in the region from Iran’s and Iran backed group’s attack.
Preventing Escalation
The route to prevent an escalation between Iran and Israel is seen to be resolution of the impasse over cease fire in Gaza.
U.S. assessments are that Iran will not seek to disrupt ongoing cease-fire negotiations in Doha aimed at ending the Hamas-Israel war. The U.S., Qatar and Egypt have said talks over the past 48 hours have been serious and constructive and that technical work on the details will continue in the coming days.
Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has kept the Iranian authorities in the loop indicating that progress is being made in the ongoing talks in Doha and that escalation needs to be avoided to give the talks a chance.
Thus US hopes to use this narrow window of time to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a hostage release and cease-fire deal in the Gaza Strip, which could then help avert a war in Lebanon after 10 months of cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah as well as an Iranian retaliation.
With hardline Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar calling the shots on the cease fire and Israel targeting him, indeed it’s a thin line.
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