A comprehensive review of events - diplomatic, military, economic and their impact
Diplomacy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed US House of Representatives’ passage of a long-delayed bill to provide $61bn in foreign aid for Ukraine and urged the United States to quickly turn the bill into law and start the transfer of weapons. The US Senate is expected to vote for the bill shortly. President Zelenskyy thanked UK PM Rishi Sunak for the UK’s “largest defence support package for Ukraine to date”.
The European Union Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg discussed Russian aggression against Ukraine in a joint session gathering both EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs and EU Ministers of Defence. Josep Borrell, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy underlined the importance of providing air defence systems and missiles to Ukraine and proposed to coordinate the urgent delivery of these items at EU level. During the ministerial discussion, several member states showed their readiness to consider specific assistance or to contribute to existing initiatives such as the Czech one on ammunition, or the German one on air defence.
Economy
Russia’s economy ministry has improved expectations for 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.8 percent from 2.3 percent, while envisaging a weaker rouble and shrinking current account surplus in the years to come.
Military
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg chaired a virtual meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council at the level of defence ministers on 19 April 2024, to address Ukraine’s urgent need for air defences and other military aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy briefed Allies on the situation on the battlefield and Ukraine’s urgent needs. After the meeting, Mr Stoltenberg said that Allies had agreed to provide further military support, including more air defencesThe ministers also addressed Ukraine’s need for more artillery shells, deep precision strike capabilities, and drones.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, addressing his department’s officials, says Russia has “dispelled the myth of the superiority of Western weapons” and that its forces gained the initiative along the 1,000km (600-mile) battlefront. Shoigu said. “We will increase the intensity of attacks on logistics centres and storage bases for Western weapons.”
President Zelenskyy said a Russian missile strike that hit a television tower in Kharkiv as part of the Kremlin’s continuing effort to intimidate Ukraine’s second largest city. Since late March, Russia has increased its attacks on Kharkiv. A Washington think tank has also said Russia may be eyeing a ground assault on Kharkiv. Russian Ground Offensive is reported to be making slow progress as a major thrust is anticipated prior to May 9, the SWW Victory Day in Russia.
Risks and Impact
With the United States and UK along with other Western countries aid package likely to make up the severe deficit of the Ukrainian forces, Russia is claiming that it will be able to neutralize these arms shipments having already increased the level of defense production particularly long range missiles including hypersonic and cruise. On the whole, enhancement of Ukrainian capabilities is expected which will indicate that the year will not be a catastrophic one as predicted by some analysts for Ukraine but may end up in another stalemate.
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