A week after Ukraine launched what is believed to be a combined arms “maneouvre,” – defined as such due to lack of clarity on nature of the operation, rapid tactical gains have been made in Russia’s Kursk Oblast [region].
These are also having an unexpected strategic impact shaking Moscow’s high command including President Vladimir Putin. Whether these are sustainable gains made however remains to be seen.
This was the first Ukrainian military offensive in Russia in the current war and has thus attracted comments both in Russia and abroad, even though Kyiv has remained obscure of reasons for the launch and even the contours of the same.
Nevertheless, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in his evening address on August 10 confirmed that Ukrainian forces have begun "to push the war out into the aggressor's territory."
"Ukraine is proving that it really knows how to restore justice and guarantees exactly the kind of pressure that is needed – pressure on the aggressor," he said.
What Happened?
Information gathered from open sources denote Ukrainian forces have made advances into the Kursk Oblast advancing upto Sudzha gas transfer and measuring station.
Russian news site Sputnik Globe claimed that on the morning of August 6, Ukrainian units numbering up to 1,000 troops attempted to seize a portion of the Sudzhansky district in the Kursk region.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank seen as one of the most credible sources, reported that Ukrainian forces have made "rapid advances" deeper into the Kursk region, reportedly reaching up to 35 kilometers (20 miles) beyond the border.
"The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk… and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise," stated the ISW.
On August 09, Russian military bloggers reported that fighting was taking place on the highway east of Korenevo, 13 miles north of the border, while the western part of Sudzha, about six miles into Russia, appeared to be under Ukrainian control.
Ukrainian forces in Kursk Region have lost at least 945 service members dead or wounded, as well as 102 pieces of heavy equipment, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on August 09.
Ukrainian open-source reports including bloggers claim that four Ukraine Brigades – two mechanised and two airborne special forces were launched in a classic manevoure operations striking deep in a weakly defended area.
Russia’s defence ministry said on August 08 that its forces “continue to eliminate” the Ukrainian attackers in the Sudzha and Korenevo districts, and that it was targeting the invaders with ground forces, artillery, air and missile strikes.
The same day, Gen Apti Alaudinov, commander of Chechnya’s Akhmat special forces, became the first Russian-aligned military official to acknowledge losses in the country’s military following Ukraine’s surprise incursion.
“The situation is not irreversible, nothing supernatural has happened … Yes, our men have died, that’s a fact. The enemy has entered several settlements,” Alaudinov said in a video message on his Telegram channel.
Alaudinov added that the Ukrainian military had “advanced well into our territory, around 10km”.
That the situation was grim was evident as some residents of the Kursk region were evacuated by authorities, with a group pulling into Moscow’s central train station on August 08. Russia declared a "federal level" emergency in the Kursk region.
Russia declares federal-level emergencies when there are more than 500 victims or when damage exceeds 500 million rubles (about $6 million).
Ukraine continued targeting rear areas using long-range drones, aiming at military sites, oil refineries, and other critical infrastructure.
In response, Russian forces have now launched a “counter terrorist operation,” under Russian National Antiterrorism Committee in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts, the outcome of the same will dictate the outcome of Kyiv’s maneouvre.
Impact of the Ukrainian Offensive
The impact of the Ukrainian maneouvre named as an offensive or raid by some it has been strategic in the sense that it has surprised the Russian high command including President Vladimir Putin resulting in declaration of an emergency for the first time in a major Oblast.
Putin called the attack a “massive provocation,” and accused Ukrainian troops of “indiscriminately firing various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian facilities, residential buildings, and ambulances.”
Kursk Region interim Governor Aleksey Smirnov, claimed that the Ukrainian army has been actively attempting to impede civilian evacuation efforts, “firing at civilians and ambulances.”
The strategic component of the offensive is also evident from being the first offensive on Russian territory after the Second World War.
Another strategic factor is the threat to the gas supplies to Central European countries of Hungary and Slovakia.
On the operational aspect the transition of fighting in this segment from attrition to maneouvre by Ukraine is clear.
In a war which many have marked as a hark back to the trench warfare of the First World War of the 20th Century, the return to mobile operations how so ever temporary it may seem, is refreshing.
How far this is sustainable remains to be seen?
Tactically whether this is a raid or a larger offensive maneouvre will be determined by the net outcome which is still unclear for now.
Objective of the Ukrainian Maneouvre
There is much speculation of the Ukrainian objective of the maneouvre ranging from being a morale booster in the face of the losses suffered in the Donetsk Oblast in the South to targeting source of gas supply to Central European countries – by securing the Sudzha gas transfer project.
Ukraine has publicly justified its attack into Russian territory for the first time, amid reports that its forces are advancing 13 miles (20km) inside the Kursk region on the third day of its incursion.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to the president’s office, said “the root cause of any escalation”, including into Kursk, was “unequivocal aggression” on the part of Russia in believing it could invade Ukraine with impunity.
The statement is the first acknowledgment by any leading Ukrainian official of the ongoing offensive amid silence from the country’s military on events in the Russian region. “War is war, with its own rules, where the aggressor inevitably reaps corresponding outcomes,” Podolyak added.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, appeared to allude to the incursion, saying “everyone can see that the Ukrainian army knows how to surprise” in comments at an event to unveil a new military app.
Diversionary operation to pull in Russian reserves from the Donetsk sector is another objective visualized. This goal as per current operational developments is being realized even though the quantum of depletion of Russian forces on the offensive in Donetsk remains a question mark?
There is speculation of posing a threat to the Sudzha gas transfer project to influence the EU as it would “sensitively affect [EU members] Hungary and Slovakia,” and threaten “to cut both countries off from Russian gas coming through the pipeline, similar to the shutdown of Russian oil coming through the Druzhba pipeline from Ukraine,” a Hungarian think tank official has warned.
The Sudzha station remains the only entry point for Russian natural gas into the Ukrainian gas transmission system for transport to Europe.
The Russian energy giant Gazprom has confirmed it continues to supply gas for Europe via the facility.
Fighting in Kursk has edged gradually closer to a nuclear power plant, prompting the UN nuclear agency to release a statement urging the two sides to “exercise maximum restraint”.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi appealed to all sides to take measures “to avoid a nuclear accident with the potential for serious radiological consequences”.
On the other hand, there is speculation that the maneouvre may be to gain territory as a bargaining chip for negotiations in the future. To that extent a 100 or more square kms may not be a substantial chunk for trading off with far larger chunks seized by Russia in the East and South.
Another motive is seen to be to seize an area which has Ukraine origin people, declaring the area as Ukrainian territory just as Russia did so in the South and the East.
Whatever may be the objective, clearly for Ukraine, if it stalls or even prevents Russia from mounting a major attack in its north, it will see this operation as worth it.
Some analysts have chastised the Ukraine command for launching an offensive without a definitive purpose which may result in losses in some of the best fighting component of the
military at a time when manpower was at a premium.
As they say it is too early to tell.
Conclusion
The Ukrainian maneouvre is unlikely to change the overall military strategic geography in the near term as both sides Russia and Ukraine lack the combat power to gain a decisive edge.
The moral is to material however remains important and here Ukraine has gained a fleeting high.
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