The World has changed or so it seems after Mr Donald Trump took over the US Presidency on January 20th.
Amongst the flurry of “announcements,” perhaps the singular one so far is the proposal for a realignment of United States and Russia relations that has the potential for ending the 75 year old Trans-Atlantic alliance -the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation [NATO].
The United States may not be a security guarantor for Europe any more as Article 5 of the Treaty will not imply US coming to the assistance of the European allies in a possible outbreak of war with Russia because the US has other national security priorities possibly implying the Indo Pacific and China.
In this larger reframing of US commitment to Europe was proposal for ending the War in Ukraine – with direct communications between the Presidents of US and Russia, without involvement of the main warring party – Kyiv and Brussels apart from other major European powers.
From a theoretical perspective this will be a virtual no – go from the word go – [pun intended] but the US President Donald Trump believes that overwhelming military and economic muscle of the United States will be able to swing a direct deal with Russia and then offer the same to Ukraine and Europe for their comments if not acceptance.
This is far too preposterous to believe as a viable proposal for ending the War in Ukraine and only exposes the naivete of present US administration - Mr. Trump and his new team of advisers many of whom are new to geopolitical negotiations and decision making.
Mr Trump should have known better from his experience of negotiating with the North Korean autocrat Kim Jong-un where bilateral talks failed even though the other party South Korea was on board but did not participate in the high level negotiations.
The US Russia engagement is far more complex, with numerous stakeholders who are unlikely to passively accept a deal even it comes through where their interests are not met.
So what has led to these truly earthshaking developments
The Events as Epilogue
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump held a phone call on February 12 agreeing to "work together "and expressing readiness to negotiate peace in Ukraine.
Preceding the same in a meeting of the 26th iteration of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth suggested that Ukraine cannot hope to become a member of NATO and reclaim borders with Russia to what they were before the annexation of Crimea in 2014. He also “called on NATO allied countries to increase their defense spending and take the lead in providing for Ukraine and Europe's security”.
Reactions from Russia, Ukraine and Europe
Quite expectedly reactions from the Kremlin, always a hardnosed geopolitical player, are of absolute delight, which speaks of the desperateness of Russia for a deal to end the fighting in Ukraine that has cost Moscow thousands of lives and broken the Russian economy.
Conversely there is a sense of despair in Ukraine but a quiet resolve as many Ukrainians rallied behind President Volodymyr Zelensky and are willing to continue to fight a war for their sovereignty and national identity despite the weariness over three years.
"We, as a sovereign country, simply will not be able to accept any agreements without us," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the country remained committed to joining NATO, which he said was the simplest and least expensive way the West could provide the security guarantees needed to ensure peace.
"All our allies have said the path of Ukraine towards NATO is irreversible. This prospect is in our constitution. It is in our strategic interest," he said.
Ukraine does not expect to hold talks with the Russian side in Munich at the international security conference and believes the United States, Europe and Ukraine need a common position before talks with Moscow, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's communications adviser said. "Talks with Russians in Munich are not expected," the Ukrainian communications adviser, Dmytro Lytvyn, said.
Indeed, Europe is also likely to stand up against the US plan for undermining Ukrainian sovereignty which in turn could threaten European security.
"Any agreement without us will fail, because you need Europe and Ukraine to also implement the agreement," European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. "Any quick fix is a dirty deal." "It's appeasement. It has never worked
Possible Format of the Talks
The Trump Putin telephonic talks are just setting the stage for negotiations. There are likely to be multiple tracks in the dialogue with the primary one being between Russia and the United States.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian state TV in an interview: "One way or another, of course, Ukraine will participate in the negotiations."
He added: "There will be a bilateral Russian-American track of this dialogue, and a track that will be related to Ukraine's involvement."
Asked about European demands to be represented in Ukraine peace talks, Peskov said: "As for Europe's participation, there is no understanding yet of the format of a possible negotiation process, so it is premature to talk about it."
How Others Reacted?
Chinese reactions to the development were typically guarded, “China is pleased to see Russia and the US, both major nations with influence, enhance communication and dialogue on a range of international issues”, Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on February 13 speaking at a regular news conference.
"China supports all efforts conducive to a peaceful resolution of the crisis and will continue to communicate with all relevant parties and play a constructive role in promoting a political solution to the crisis," Guo said.
China should be worried for a delinking of the United States from Europe would imply that the focus of American national security strategy would be the Indo Pacific.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in the White House on February 13 and when asked by the media on the developments to end the War in Ukraine, said, "I am happy that President Trump has taken the initiative for peace by speaking with President Putin. The world thinks India is neutral, but India is not neutral. India has its own stance, and India’s stance is peace," Mr Modi told reporters at the White House.
A full fledged US focus on the Indo Pacific will keep China under check and thus should be welcomed by Delhi.
Geo-Strategic Implications
While the outcome of the negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine will be long way off, the strategic implications of the developments are far reaching.
For the first time – NATO is expected to be a European rather than a Trans-Atlantic alliance- even though these are the first shots in a long drawn out series of parleys that may even go beyond the Trump tenure in the White House and become an unfinished agenda for the United States.
Shake up of the Western values-based order an alliance which believed in democracy, universal human rights, rule of law, market based economy which was much questioned and scorned by many as cultural imperialism may turn the international order into a ‘realist jungle’ where might is right.
That the United States is adopting values that were much cherished based on humanitarian consideration will also imply that the US may be losing the leadership in the eyes of the World created over the past several decades though many claimed that this was just a façade.
Yet the frequent failure of the “might” in recent years where America itself has suffered setbacks from Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq should have been a reminder of the portends ahead.
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