Pakistan’s strategic community was surprised by the sudden imposition of sanctions on the premier nuclear and missile development entity, The National Development Complex (NDC).
The United States Department of State in a Press release indicated that due to the threat of proliferation from Pakistan’s long-range missile development, the United States is designating four entities for sanctions pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13382, which targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.
One of the key entities was the NDC, in Islamabad, Pakistan, which has worked to acquire items in furtherance of Pakistan’s long range ballistic missile program – including special vehicle chassis intended to be used as launch support equipment for ballistic missiles and missile testing equipment.
The United States assesses NDC is responsible for Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles, including the SHAHEEN-series ballistic missiles said the release.
The United States will continue to act against proliferation and associated procurement activities of concern said another State department release. v
Three private entities sanctioned include Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, located in Karachi, Pakistan, has worked for NDC to supply a range of equipment to Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program.
Affiliates International, located in Karachi, Pakistan, has facilitated procurements of missile-applicable items for NDC and others in support of Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.
Rockside Enterprise, located in Karachi, Pakistan, has worked for NDC to supply a range of equipment to Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program.
Shaheen III
The Shaheen 3 is a two-stage, solid-fueled medium-range ballistic missile. It is reportedly capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional payloads to a range of 2,750 km
The Shaheen series of missiles and particularly the Shaheen III has been developed as per the doyen of Pak nuclear strategy General Khalid Kidwai to cover India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands where it was feared that India could be locating considerable second strike capability out of the normal range of Pak missiles. Kidwai claimed that Shaheen 3 neutralises that threat from India.
US Rationale
Explaining the rationale, Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer speaking to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Pakistan has pursued "increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment, that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors." If those trends continue, Finer said, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States." The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland "is very small and they tend to be adversarial," he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China.
"So, candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," Finer said.
The main concern appears to be the size of rocket motors being developed by Pakistan.
Even though experts believe that the threat posed is almost a decade away prudence demanded that sanctions be imposed to contain the same.
Pakistani Response
Pakistan’s Foreign Office (FO) in a series of statements has dismissed US concerns as “unfounded, devoid of rationality and sense of history”. FO spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said, “The alleged threat perception from Pakistan’s missile capabilities and delivery means, raised by the US official are unfortunate. “These allegations are unfounded, devoid of rationality and sense of history,” she asserted. Noting that both countries “enjoyed a positive and broad-ranging relationship” since 1954, Baloch said the “recent spate of allegations towards a major non-Nato ally would be unhelpful for the overall relationship, especially in the absence of any evidence in this regard”.
“Pakistan has never had any ill-intention towards the US in any form or manner, and this fundamental reality has not changed,” the FO spokesperson said. “Pakistan has also made it abundantly clear that our strategic program and allied capabilities are solely meant to deter and thwart a clear and visible existential threat from our neighbourhood and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country,” the spokesperson said.
Are US Concerns Justified?
Looking at future geopolitical developments including Pakistan’s iron clad partnership with China and the possibility of Islamabad joining the nuclear club led by anti US powers as Russia and North Korea, the move to sanction the NDC and other entities would appear rational despite the long standing strategic relations with Pakistan.
This is a sign of erosion of trust in Pakistan’s leadership mainly the military which is believed to control the nuclear weapons despite a civilian headed national security body. As developing a long range missile targeting the US mainland will take a decade or more, Washington believes that it is necessary to curb the same at this stage rather than becoming a fait accompli as the example of North Korea has shown.
Nuclear decision making has two facets – capability and intention. While at present Pakistan does not have a capability to directly target the US mainland with Shaheen 3 the longest range missile fielded by Islamabad, it is believed that developing larger rocket motors will provide the necessary capability for developing an Inter Continental Ballistic Missile [ICBM] in the future.
In turn having developed such a capability a change of intention can be presumed in case of an antagonist regime which is hostile to the US and aligned with the Chinese strategic objectives.
On the other hand, the US may be pushing Pakistan into Chinese and Russian arms with such a move that could have been more effective outside the public domain. Possibly having failed to convince Islamabad to abandon the project of large rocket motors and launch support equipment, Washington has stepped in with sanctions.
Incidentally Pakistan tested the Shaheen III last on January 20, 2021, the day US President Joe Biden was sworn in which some say is only a coincidence, but if so it was a strategic error as in nuclear parlance this can denote signaling. Does this timing have some role in the US sanctions as President Biden is weeks away from demitting office?
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