TRAC Incident Report: Weekly Analysis of 22 January reported a major clash between the that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) on 18 January 2025 in Birmil, Khost, Afghanistan, leaving 17 dead—11 from TTP and six from HGB.
This marks the first documented ground confrontation between the two factions in 2025, following months of propaganda-driven rivalry over dominance through mergers and alliances as per TRAC Report.
The roots of this conflict date back to November 2024, when HGB accused TTP of targeting its Bettani-aligned militants, leading to the collapse of their fragile alliance. HGB’s growing independence was evident with the launch of its “Al-Fatah bi al-Nusratul Rehman” campaign in mid-2024, which showcased its ability to operate autonomously and challenge TTP's dominance.
Meanwhile, TTP sought to maintain a unified structure under Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, emphasising cohesion and centralised command. The recent confrontations highlight this fragmentation as both factions manoeuvre for influence and resources per TRAC Report.
The rivalry escalated in January 2025, with TTP securing a merger with Commander Ali Dawar’s Jaish-e-Umari faction and HGB absorbing the Hakimullah Mehsud Karwan group. Both sides continued strategic mergers to bolster their ranks, with HGB’s recent alliance with Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI) marking a significant shift. Historically aligned with TTP, LeI’s new partnership with HGB could reshape urban security dynamics, especially in the Khyber District and Peshawar as per TRAC Report.
Amid these developments, the TTP intensified its efforts to assert territorial control, expelling HGB members from North Waziristan and forcing them to retreat to South Waziristan. This strategic recalibration underscores the existential stakes for HGB, which is now consolidating its strength in less TTP-dominated areas as per TRAC Report.
The fractured militant landscape in Pakistan poses significant risks for regional stability. The rivalry reflects internal disarray within the TTP and growing desperation among factions like HGB. Both groups leverage psychological warfare and public mergers to project strength, but their deepening rifts could undermine long-term cohesion.
As these rivalries unfold, the likelihood of heightened violence in both tribal and urban areas increases, complicating counterterrorism efforts and exacerbating Pakistan’s security challenges. TRAC warns that dwindling resources and intensified state actions may drive these groups toward increasingly desperate and destabilising tactics per TRAC Report.
Source Report: TRAC Incident Report: Weekly Analysis of 22 January
How will this impact the overall counter terrorism campaign by [1] Pakistan security forces in the tribal belt of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, [2] Afghan Taliban defacto administration and Pakistan relations over support to the TTP with [3] India jumping in the fray and [4] overall regional security situation remains unclear for now.
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