Here is a brief review of developments in the South China Sea with outline trajectory, risks and impact ahead.
Diplomacy
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on May 06 that the country would not use water cannons or other offensive weapons in the South China Sea with a view to avoid tensions. "We will not follow the Chinese coast guard and Chinese vessels down that road," Marcos told reporters. He defined the mission of the Philippine navy and coast guard as to lower tensions.
China rejected this statement and asked Philippines to stop sending supplies to the crew of the World War II-era ship Sierra Madre, which is located on the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. "If the Philippines truly wants to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea, it should immediately stop sending ships ... and stop sending supplies to illegally grounded ships," a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said at a regular press briefing on May 06.
Military
Three Indian Naval Ships were in Singapore for a three-day visit as part of the operational deployment of the Navy's Eastern Fleet to the South China Sea. Rear Admiral (RAdm) Rajesh Dhankhar is commanding the Indian Naval Ships Delhi, Shakti, and Kiltan which reached the Changi naval base in the city-state on May 06. The three ships have left for Malaysia on May 09 and then visit the Philippines. This is part of the, "Op Deployment of #IndianNavy's @IN_EasternFleet to the #SouthChinaSea," it said, amidst China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea.
Economy
China’s controversial plans to deploy floating nuclear reactors in the South China Sea could recalibrate the region’s power dynamics while sparking dangerous new tensions with the United States and its regional partners and allies as per Washington Post reported that China is pursuing plans to develop floating nuclear reactors that could power military bases on its artificial islands in the South China Sea.
During a courtesy call with President Ferdinand R Marcos Jr at Malacañang, Indian port infra company, APSEZ managing director Karan Adani expressed the company's interest in "stability and favourable regulatory environments". “Your Excellency, as a private sector, what we always look for is stability. Stability in the regulation, stability in the environment that we are operating in. That is what, as you said, you are providing,” Karan Adani told president Marcos, a press release from the Philippines president's office said.
The company plans to develop a 25-meter-deep port that can accommodate Panamax vessels.
President Marcos the company to start on the regional ports initially serving local or domestic shipping needs before expanding to the international market.
Risks and Impact
The Philippines is trying to assert its claim over the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, which is strongly resisted by China which is attempting to block supplies to the Philippines personnel stationed on the Sierra Madre. China is expected to use force to prevent the ship based supplies being forwarded to the Philippines personnel. An attempt to air drop supplies is also likely to be resisted which may also result in expanding tensions.
The Indian Navy flotilla in case traversing any of the waters claimed by the China in the South China Sea is expected to raise Chinese observations in case it traverses through waters claimed by China amongst other neighbours. This would however not be the first time that India will operate in the South China Sea waters claimed by China
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