In the unstable world of today with open wars in the Middle East and Europe, South Asia despite the many travails is seen as relatively peaceful. Apart from the civil war in Myanmar challenges are mainly sub conventional – militancy, terrorism, disaster management, poverty and humanitarian distress. Political and diplomatic security however are also a major concern in South Asia given that all countries in the region are or were electoral democracies howsoever imperfect these seem to be.
In 2024, South Asia saw another major transition in power from the streets in Bangladesh. Coming on the back of the Taliban take over in Afghanistan in 2021 and deposition of Sri Lankan President in 2022, Dhaka’s sudden reversal of fortunes of Sheikh Hasina surprised many. What is in store for the people of Bangladesh caught between multiple political and societal narratives in 2025 remains to be seen.
Sri Lanka saw a peaceful presidential and parliamentary election that brought National People's Power (NPP) party and its leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) in power. India’s Lok Sabha elections saw the return of the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] led National Democratic Alliance back with Mr Narendra Modi elected as the prime minister for a record third tenure. Yet the BJP was circumcised in terms of a majority in the Lok Sabha and had to depend on allies. The main opposition party the Indian National Congress got a boost reaching 100 seats in the parliament elections but in a turn of events has had to face setbacks in State elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. None the less a strong opposition would strengthen the Indian democracy per se. Concerns of political and socio religious polarisation which may keep the country on tenterhooks without any major Faultline emerging in 2025.
Pakistan’s elections in February 2024 were contested and had to run through a series of gauntlets from courts to Election Commission travails. It appears that the Shahbaz Sharif led Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz coalition government may survive the year 2025, but faces other challenges mainly in the security and economic sphere. A shooting war and skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan seems likely as was evident in the last week of December 2024. This combined with a resurgent militancy in the tribal belt of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan will keep the security forces on vigil. Economic recovery may appear on a positive trajectory but stability remains far away.
Afghanistan is expected to see the Islamic Emirate continuing with hardline brand of Sharia benefiting from the largesse of the international community based on humanitarian considerations. Recognition is unlikely for now.
Down south the AKD government in Sri Lanka and the Mohammad Muizzu one in Maldives may go in for consolidation in 2025 with likelihood of resistance from the well-entrenched political forces and support from outside.
As highlighted, Bangladesh Interim Administration will have a long road to regaining stability in the country given multiple poles in politics, vested interests in the economic sphere and a freer hand to radical elements in the past six months. With military unwilling to take any lead on political issues, it will be left to the Chief Adviser Professor Mohammad Yunus to attempt to keep the destabilising forces at bay.
Nepal and Bhutan seem stable in 2025 as there is no political or security upheaval, but both will have to balance their relations carefully with China and India.
The people of Myanmar are expected to pass through another year of unbearable hardship in 2025 with many perishing under the continued misrule of the military and stalemate on the insurgency front unless there is another coup this time to upend Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
Despite these travails people of the region lacking functional regional cooperation framework may be better off than in some other regions in the world in 2025.
Yet the challenges of human development and sustained economic growth are unlikely to change in 2025 – it is a long haul ahead for the people of South Asia, what ever be the narrative in an era of information, misinformation and disinformation.