India’s quest for self reliance in defence has been marked by a flagship programme of, “Atma Nirbhar Bharat in Defence,” which is monitored at the highest level by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and pushed inveterately by the Defence Minister Mr Rajnath Singh. What is the status of self reliance till 2020 has been flagged by a study released by Stockholm International Peace and Research Institute (SIPRI) on 03 October named “Arms Production Capabilities in The Indo-Pacific Region-Measuring Self-Reliance,” by Lucie Beraud-Sudreau, Xiao Liang, Siemon T. Wezeman and Ming Sun. PDF of Study can be found Here.
Status of Self Reliance in the Indo Pacific
Since the armed forces in the Indo-Pacific region remain dependent on the imports of the Weapon system from foreign suppliers, plus the world’s five largest arms importers were from this region for the period 2016-2020, the study draws an essential means to ascertain and quantify the factors and industry-position of the top 12 importer economies of the region as a case study. The 12 case studies in the Indo-Pacific region include Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Viet Nam. But Viet Nam has not been included in the final ranking due to a lack of data.
SIPRI study results reveal wide disparities. There is generally more self-reliance in East Asia—China (rank 1), Japan (rank 2) and South Korea (rank 3)—than in South East Asia—Indonesia (rank 9), Malaysia (rank 10) and Thailand (rank 11).
India is ranked fourth while Pakistan eighth but as per the SIPRI report level of licensed production is relatively high in both states.
All importers in the region maintain a common objective of increasing self-reliance in the development of the defence industrial capabilities, including India. The ambition of full self-reliance however is difficult to realise as per SIPRI. “Full self-reliance is arguably impossible to achieve: few states have the capability and resources to set up an arms industry capable of supplying all the needs of their armed forces. Even the United States, the world’s largest arms producer, still relies on foreign resources for its arms production,” says the Report.
However SIPRI believes, “maintaining local arms-manufacturing and repair capabilities allows states to sustain their forces’ equipment in case of supply disruptions and provides limited capability for military adaptation and innovation”.
The study used three indicators to assess the level of self-reliance in arms production, in which India stood at the 4th position in South Asia. The three indicators are as follows:
1. Domestic and licensed production as shares of the total acquisitions of significant arms between 2016 and 2020.
2. The size of domestic arms-producing and military services companies.
3. Capabilities in emerging military technologies, as presented by progress in the research and development of uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) and uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs).
Case India
Observing the study of India, which has built up a substantial arms industry since the 1950s. It has been supported by successive governments, till it followed the current policy of broader ‘Make in India,’ which promotes local production in partnerships with foreign companies. The defence as a priority is evident from the budgetary allocation of 2021 military expenditure, which had been earmarked at 64% of its capital outlay for domestic equipment acquisitions.
SIPRI remarks that India has ambitious programmes for additional nuclear-powered submarines, new combat aircraft designs, autonomous weapons and associated components. SIPRI believes that “earlier experiences of Indian domestic arms programmes leave serious doubts about whether India will be able to significantly reduce its dependence on imports in the short or medium terms”.
Indian defence industry is based mainly on the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) and erstwhile Ordnance Factories which have now been corporatized in the form of DPSUs. SIPRI identifies DPSU’s productivity low while these are based on domestic military orders and are dependent on foreign resources.
The recent initiative by the Government of India of restricting arms imports by publication of lists has been mentioned by SIPRI, the outcomes are awaited and thus could not be obviously factored in the Report.
Indicator 1: Arms Procurement
Globally India remained the largest importer of the major arms, being ranked the second most importer for the period 2016-2020. As per the study, of India’s total volume of procurement in 2016-20, 84 per cent was of foreign origin.
Moreover, licensed production accounted for 69 per cent of the imports (58 per cent of total acquisitions). As the study suggests, an important objective of licensed production is to gain capabilities to develop local design through technology transfers. However, over the decades, the story has been different. For instance, the technology transfer related to the completed large programme for the Russian Su-30MKI was reportedly seen in India as a ‘mistake’ since no real technology transfer took place.
On the other hand, 16 per cent of total procurement has been accounted for as domestic production. Some prominent instances of domestic design that give India’s nuclear forces a high level of autonomy include the land-attack missiles (some with nuclear warheads) and a class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, Arihant. However, the study states that the recent decades have witnessed a slow and not very successful pace in other categories of major arms such as the development related to the Tejas combat aircraft and some similar progress of the delayed Arjun tank. Thus, it becomes clear that domestic designs remain dependent on imported key components such as engines and radars.
Despite the looming uncertainty of whether India will be able to significantly reduce its dependence on imports in the short or medium term, the country has put forth ambitious programmes for additional nuclear-powered submarines, new combat aircraft designs, autonomous weapons (UCAV and autonomous reconnaissance vehicles) and associated components.
Indicator 2: The Arms Industry
India’s arms-producing industry has long been dominated by Public Sector Undertakings and Indian Ordinance Factories under the Ministry of Defence (MOD). Among the largest five state-owned companies for arms production in India, four are the leading producers in aerospace, land systems, electronics and shipbuilding. Moreover, the fifth biggest company, Cochin Shipyard has produced India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier, Vikrant.
There has been a major concern about industrial productivity, their reliance on domestic military orders and their dependence on foreign equipment, given the size and industry dominance. However, the Indian defence industry has begun to diversify its business into the civil market and has set up export offices overseas. Moreover, under the Make in India policy the government has opened an avenue to the private sector, with over 200 companies licensed to produce military items and bid for government projects, often collaborating with major foreign arms producers.
Indicator 3: Uncrewed Maritime Vehicles
In 2019, India established the high-level Defence AI Council (DAIC) and the Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA) to support the implementation of artificial intelligence projects with military applications. The study believes that ‘the Indian Nava Indigenisation Plan 2015-30 acknowledges UUVs as a critical capability for future warfare and the country’s need to import remotely operated vehicles and AUVs for the shipbuilding programme.’
As per the study, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and the central Mechanical Engineering Research Institute (CMERI) have been considering the development of AUV prototypes. On the other hand, the private sector company Larsen and Turbo has been developing AUV prototypes on its own and in collaboration with foreign partners, such as Italy’s EdgeLab.
Conclusion
India has been ranked fourth in the self reliance score by the SIPRI study behind China, Japan and South Korea. India is also ahead of more industrialised countries in the region such as Australia, Taiwan and Singapore based on the volume of production given large defence budget of the country. Will India be able to improve the score given significant emphasis on Atma Nirbhar Bharat or self reliant India by the government in the past couple of years remains to be seen?
While the aspiration of self reliance in defence is no doubt desirable for a country with large defence requirements as India, this has to be matched by the defence R & D and industrial capability, sans the same the restriction of imports through the, “Positive lists,” may be quick fixes which will require many tweaks in the future.
India could do well to plug into the global arms production supply chain in a manner that production of essentials will reduce the risk of disruptions.
[Research Compilation by Harshita Panwar]
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