Contrary to conventional wisdom on India reviewing dependence on Russia for arms imports post the challenges after the War in Ukraine since February 2022, India is continuing with inking military technical cooperation agreements with Russia which can increase dependency over the next couple of decades.
Multiple media sources reported on November 11 that India's government owned public defence sector undertaking, Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) and Russia's Rosoboronexport signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on the Pantsir air defense missile-gun systems.
The agreement was signed by BDL's Chairman and Managing Director, A Madhavarao (Retd), and Kovalenko German, Deputy Director General of the Naval Department at ROE, during the 5th India-Russia Inter Governmental Commission (IRIGC) subgroup meeting in Goa.
BDL did not provide details of the agreement. Hindustan Times quoting reports indicated that agreement is aimed at jointly developing new variants of the Pantsir system more suited to India’s needs.
As per open source information Pantsir system combines missile and guns and is designed to defend small military, administrative and industrial facilities against aircraft and cruise missiles.
Brief details of capabilities indicate that Pantsir, combines a short reaction time with the capability of a combat vehicle, can engage aircraft with its missiles at altitudes of up to 15 km and with its 30mm guns at altitudes of up to 3,000 metres. Recent upgrades have enabled the Pantsir to provide a 360-degree view, enhancing its capability to detect and counter threats from all directions as per media reports.
However, several questions arise of the ability of the Russians to deliver the systems for assembly to Bharat Dynamics in real time and collaborate on joint development of a system suited to Indian conditions. Was any viability of the systems as assessed from employment of the War in Ukraine is not clear as there are conflicting reports of efficacy of the Pantsir.
On the other hand, questions over continued strategic dependence on Russia when Indian armament shift to the West is another facet. Acquisition of a major defence system as the Pantsir would entail integration with Moscow on various facets of military technical cooperation going forward to three decades or more.
Possibly lack of suitable options globally may have led India to look towards Moscow for it has a large spectrum of air defence weapons in its military repertoire. Though the effectiveness particularly in the electronic dimension remains a concern.
On the larger plane, in an External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar at the India-Russia Business Forum, Mumbai on November 11, 2024 highlighted several facets of India Russia economic relations. Jaishankar said –
(i) Our bilateral trade is today at USD 66 billion. This makes the goal of reaching USD 100 billion by 2030 more than realistic.
(ii) The balance of trade however needs urgent redressal since it is so one-sided. It is imperative that non-tariff barriers and regulatory impediments are speedily addressed for this to happen.
(iii) The India-Eurasian Economic Union trade in goods negotiations commenced in March this year. We need to vigorously take it forward.
(iv) The first ever bilateral Investment Forum took place in Moscow in April 2024. We also need to expedite negotiations on the Bilateral Investment Treaty.
(v) The programme for cooperation in regard to the Russian Far-East from 2024-29 was signed in July during the Annual Summit. It encourages other related activities including in the connectivity sphere.
(vi) Mutual settlement of trade in national currencies is of great importance, especially in the current circumstances. Special Rupee Vostro Accounts are right now an effective mechanism. However, even in the short run, a better trade balance with national currency settlements is the answer.
(vii) Signing of a bilateral agreement between the customs authorities of the two countries in May 2024 on Authorized Economic Operators, has had a big impact on smoothening the ease of doing trade.
(viii) The three connectivity initiatives between us, as mentioned by the First DPM as well – INSTC, Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor and the Northern Maritime Route – all need continued attention, if we are to realize full potential.
(ix) A growing Russian appreciation of Make In India as a program to deepen business will certainly help to take forward our cooperation in many many domains.
(x) An finally, I flag to your attention, the importance of non-economic domains, such as education and film as contributions to a larger societal but also an economic connect between us.
So a reality check on India Russia relations going forward despite the hype of ending dependence seen over the past few years post the War in Ukraine.