Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi visit to Ukraine on 23 August 2024, at the invitation of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in the spot light this week. This was the first ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine, since diplomatic relations were established between the two countries in the year 1992 but also took place when the Ukraine Russia war is at a new inflection point.
August 23 is also the Ukraine Flag Day thus there is more than symbolism to the Indian Prime Minister’s visit and meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. National Flag Day was celebrated in Kyiv, near the Motherland monument. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the military, and political officials took part in the events.
The visit led to better understanding of the Ukraine war situation as well as the drivers for a possible mediation while strengthening India’s multi alignment credentials.
Strengthening multi-alignment
After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow in July this year which came at a propitious time of the NATO Summit marking 75th Year of the collective security organization which is mainly directed at deterrence by the Soviet Union/Russia, there was criticism of India having abandoned strategic autonomy and aligned with Russia.
Of particular notice was the bear hug typical of Mr Modi with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Now with the visit to Ukraine and a bear hug with Ukrainian President Volodymr Putin to state in a pithy way the notion of India’s exclusive partnership with Russia was dispelled strengthening Multi Alignment.
Multi Alignment is described by Ian Hall as, “engagement in regional multilateral institutions, the use of strategic partnerships, and what is termed ‘normative hedging’…” It refers to parallel relations with multiple strategic partners which in this case included Russia and Ukraine – two countries at war.
Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar has explained multi-alignment as , “more energetic, more participative as compared to an earlier posture of abstention or non-involvement it certainly sounds very much more vigorous”. He also highlighted that this was not a move of tactical convenience but strategic convergence. So the Ukraine visit is xpected to be a one off public diplomacy event.
Mediation
There was speculation in some quarters of the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi being India’s pitch for mediation in the ongoing Russia Ukraine War – with the latest phase Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, Russian territory for the first time after the Second World War
Mediation in an international dispute requires multiple steps.
Prime Minister Modi with an interaction with the leaders of the two antagonists at war Russian President Vladmir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky within the space of a few weeks has had the advantage, thus an exchange of thoughts expressed by both leaders on the issue of closure to the War would have been a part of the discussions in Kyiv.
The fact that Ukraine is seeking high level engagement by India in a peace conference being held in November indicates that there may not have been any progress in offer of mediation by India if any. Pragmatically this was not anticipated as well.
Moreover, between the two visits of Mr Modi to Moscow and Kyiv Ukrainian ingress in Russian territory in Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk is a new development. For mediation to progress the front has to be static and the two sides should be keen for engagement having recognized that the solution cannot be obtained through war.
This is clearly not the case for now, but one speculation is that Ukraine’s Kursk offensive may be to gain a bargaining chip in any future engagement.
Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar indicated that “in terms of the time which the Prime Minister and President Zelenskyy spent, most of it actually was in regard to the conflict. He sought President Zelenskyy's assessment, both of the ground situation as well as the diplomatic scenario. President Zelenskyy spoke at some length on both issues”.
Dr S Jaishankar accepted that mediation in the Ukraine Russia contest was very complex. Replying to a question in the media briefing on August 23 he said, “So where we ended, at the end of the discussion, I think there was a sense that this is a very complex issue. I mean, yes, certainly we have this one particular format, the Peace in Ukraine format”.
Ukraine View
Ukraine Statements on the interaction indicated that India was willing to support the peace formula promoted by President Zelenskyy.
Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak told the United News Telethon., “In particular, India is ready, and it will support the processes of implementing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Peace Formula”.
Importantly a statement ascribed to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “India supports our state sovereignty and territorial integrity, and this is crucial because everyone in the world must equally respect the UN Charter. And now, at the time of Russia's war against Ukraine, India is supporting Ukraine in a humanitarian way by providing humanitarian aid packages to our country. I thank the people of India for this.”
How is this approach of India on Ukrainian territorial sovereignty which includes areas annexed by Russia as per Kyiv's perspective is viewed in Moscow remains to be seen?
All in all, Prime Miniter Modi’s visit to Ukraine expanded the understanding of each side and provided Indian leadership a perspective of Kyiv’s point of view especially the Peace in Ukraine format.
How this is taken forward by New Delhi during the meeting in November remains to be seen?
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