Even though there is a sense of internal stability in the immediate term, after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in the helicopter crash, intense internal politicking is anticipated as three top leadership posts are up for transition – the President, Speaker of the Parliament and finally in due course the Supreme Authority and Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khamanei, the last named being the most significant. Moreover nuclear factor has also emerged as a new concern.
Diplomacy
On the diplomatic front, funeral diplomacy assumed traction as Iranian media claimed that 68 countries and international organizations traveled to Iran to honor the late President and Foreign Minister of Iran, who tragically died in a helicopter crash on May 20.
The incident took place as President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, along with their companions, were returning from an inauguration ceremony in Azerbaijan.
Amongst the many dignitaries in attendance was the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif who also had and audience with Ayatollah Khamanei and Indian Vice President, Jagdeep Dhankhar, who led a senior delegation of Indian officials.
Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs visit is particularly notable as it marked the first time an Egyptian Foreign Minister has traveled to Tehran in over four decades, signaling a potential thaw in relations between the two countries as per the Tehran Times.
Interestingly chief of the political bureau of the - Hamas Ismail Haniyeh was also present in Iran for the funeral ceremony and received an audience with Ayatollah Khamanei
Politics
Supreme Authority Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei highlighted Iran’s determination to carry on the path initiated by the late President Ebrahim Raisi. “Despite this loss, the country's course will not change, and the same spirit of affection and confidence between Iran and Qatar that prevailed during the reign of the late president will continue under Dr. Mokhber,” the Leader explained as per Iranian media to the Qatari delegation in the country to attend the funeral.
However multiple political undercurrents are anticipated. The President died in the helicopter crash even as another influential position speaker in the unicameral Majlis or parliament is yet to be decided as the second round of polls were completed last week.
This implies that both the executive and legislative branches of the government are currently leaderless. This may matter less but there are also concerns that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who turned 85 in April may be on the last leg of his long stay at the helm of affairs due to old age. Ebrahim Raisi was seen as the unanointed successor preferred by Khamanei, now how he shapes the Presidential elections for June 28 will determine who will succeed him.
Intense backroom politics is anticipated which is the usual form in Iran where multiple political factions are active at any one time and intensely foster rivalries to gain an upper hand.
Raisi’s successor is expected to emerge from a conservative inner circle, the preferred group for Khamanei but could be more moderate due to trends in Iranian politics of power shifting between conservatives and reformists, which creates a sense of balance in Iranian politics and boosts the regime’s public legitimacy.
The parliament speaker’s election will also see much jockeying primarily between the ultra conservatives who hold a sweeping majority,
As for successor of Khamanei, the Assembly of Experts packed with loyalists of the Supreme Authority will decide when the time comes and may anoint a successor preferred by the conservative leader himself.
Nuclear and Military
On the nuclear front statements by some of the key leaders in the hierarchy who are also close to Ayatollah Khamanei have expressed that Iran should go nuclear. The foreign office however has indicated that there is no change in the nuclear policy.
Iran was expecting expansive talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA]. “They are in a mourning period which I need to respect," International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said in Helsinki, speaking at a nuclear conference.
Grossi had expressed concern over statements by Iranian leadership of going nuclear and had said that the chatter was “very worrying” and “needs to stop.”
Meanwhile the hollowness of the Iranian military capability in conventional terms was evident with the crash.
The state of Iran’s helicopters fleet barred from purchasing new aircraft or aircraft components from US or European suppliers since the revolution of 1979, has left both military and civilian operators cut off from heavyweights Boeing Co. and Airbus SE. Thus Iranian airlines operate some of the world’s oldest aircraft, with an average fleet age of over 25 years.
Then there are several other issues such as willingness of the pilots to fly in adverse weather and both the foreign minister and the President traveling on the same chopper. The helicopter that crashed did not have its signal system turned on or did not possess such a system.
The Bell 212 is held by Iranian air force and navy 10, in number according to Flight Global’s 2024 World Air Forces directory. Few details available suggest the helicopter it may be 40 to 50 years old.
And the much touted Iranian drone capability with Russia purchasing thousands of one way UAVs for targeting in Ukraine has limited capabilities in terms of surveillance and detection. Thus, assistance had to be taken from Turkey’s drone teams for location of the site of helicopter crash of the Iranian President.
Over the years, the Bayraktar Akinci and other drones developed by Turkish defence manufacturer Baykar have received international recognition for their capabilities.
An Akinci drone, capable of speeds of up to 400 km/h and scanning the terrain efficiently at lower speeds, crossed the Iranian airspace from Van, Türkiye, at around 12:45 a.m. local time.
At 2:22 a.m., a heat source was detected, an important clue that was immediately passed on to the Iranian authorities. Iranian official sources while acknowledging assistance from Turkey stated that it was their drone which detected the site of crash.
Risks, Impact & Checks
In the light of above, short term stability within is anticipated Iran given that the Supreme Authority of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei remains at the helm.
Khamanei’s influence across institutions and control of the IRGC implies that he would be able to put down any signs of resentment some of which were evident in the streets of Tehran where celebrations were held over the death of the President in the helicopter crash, highlighting his unpopularity due to harsh rights record.
Khamanei will be shaping the next Presidential candidate, but this apart it is also apparent that the post of the Speaker of the parliament is also presently due to review after elections have just been completed with the second round in May.
Finally the aging Ayatollah is seen by many as likely to need a successor any time soon and intense politicking can be anticipated ahead of these three posts – the Supreme Authority, the President and the Parliament Speaker, though much of it may not be evident to outside observers.
On the nuclear front, there is a need for close watch of the possibility of Iran going overtly or
covertly weaponised, which may change the overall strategic balance in the Middle East.
On the military front, rhetoric apart Iran’s asymmetric drone and missile capabilities while noted, the gaps are clearly evident in the conventional arena particularly air and helicopter.
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