With the State demonstrating the will to exercise authority to ensure security and law enforcement in Manipur troubled by violence over the past 21 months there is hope that this could be the beginning of restoration of stability.
Manipur has been in the news for all the wrong reasons so far. A people who have powered Indian sports in the non-cricketing World and have stood up to the wrongs of human rights in the past can now bring about peace and order recovering lost months of instability by a commitment of give and take with President’s rule providing a neutral framework.
Over the past three years or so there was a demand for the Indian State [as in Government] to exercise will to bring order to Manipur, which was for reasons that remain unfathomable were ignored thus allowing the situation to fester into a feral insurgency cum public insecurity.
Finally, it appears that a determination has been made in Delhi of the need to combat this challenge in the North East which the Indian state has the capability to resolve yet has been strangely complacent if not downright negligent as some have alleged.
With the former union home secretary taking over as the Governor of Manipur the indicators were that Delhi had a plan in mind. As the chief official of India’s gargantuan Ministry of Home Affairs for almost five years, Mr. Ajay Kumar Bhalla had the requisite experience and the confidence of the Home Minister Mr. Amit Shah as well as the Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi to implement firm measures to bring back order.
This was followed by the resignation of Chief Minister Mr. Biren Singh and imposition of President’s Rule as there was no alternative taker for the crown of thorns.
That this was not to be an easy task was evident as immediately after imposition of President’s Rule there were protests calling the same undemocratic as very strong civil society voices in the State came up on the streets of Imphal.
Each group promoted perception of what needs to be done to repair the situation indicating the wide ethnic gulf between the two main communities the Meitei – majority restricted to the Valley and the Kuki-Zo-Hmar in the hill districts.
They advocated measures to address the root causes of the conflict and promote long-term peace and stability but most of these were seen as community centric rather than state centric. The trust between the principal communities is not only lacking but is bordering on enmity which has permeated down to the last Meitei and Kuki. There are very few sane voices evident in public space who are willing to accept the genuine grievances or aspirations of the other side.
The President’s rule exercised through the Governor and the state civil service provides degree of neutrality for uniformly cracking down on the inimical elements including militant groups and vigilantes which had sprouted exploiting a weak law and order grid in the State.
This will however be a long battle and thus early closure on the security front cannot be anticipated even as resolution of the impasse will be a political one.
Nevertheless, a beginning has been made in the last one week which shows that there is a recognition of the necessity for a security first approach to bring the inimical elements to book by uprooting the network of posts by local elements of the community calling themselves as village guards, commencing a campaign of recovery of arms – 6000 or so having been looted from state armoury amongst other measures.
Rooting out the violence elements of the civil society such as the Arambai Tenggol, a Meitei militia is a step should send a strong signal and in parallel there is a move to disarm the Kuki groups as well. Free movement in the hills has reportedly commenced. This is an important step as ironically the hill areas were being supplied from neighbouring Mizoram as Meitei groups did not allow the trucks to pass through the Valley areas.
At the beginning of the security campaign Manipur governor Mr. Ajay Bhalla has urged people to surrender looted and illegally held weapons within seven days. “It is in this regard I sincerely request the people of all communities, particularly the youths in the Valley and Hills, to voluntarily come forward and surrender looted and illegally held weapons and ammunitions to the nearest police station, outpost, security forces camp within seven days, with effect from today,” said the governor and assured that no action will be taken.
“Your single act of returning these weapons can be a powerful gesture towards ensuring peace. I want to assure you that no punitive action would be initiated if such weapons are returned within the stipulated time. Thereafter, strict action will be taken for possession of such weapons,” Bhalla added.
“Let us rebuild our state together with hope and trust for a brighter future. Come forward and choose peace,” he added.
There could be just a tepid response as most of the weapons are with hard core militant and vigilante groups in the State, but the call will provide the State a roadmap for armed action against what is one of the biggest setbacks to Indian security forces in recent times – losing thousands of weapons.
Beyond this the campaign will have to be long and frequently bloody yet given the government willing to exercise its will – the State will prevail. The many tracks required will be to contain unrestricted cross border movement across the Indo Myanmar border, targeting militant groups who have reportedly acquired drones, defanging the so-called village guards, dismantling the drug networks and allowing resumption of normal activity between the Valley and the Hill sector of the State.
This will have to be followed by political action to bring the communities together and render peace and justice to the people at large before finally handing over the state to the elected leadership.
While the prescribed period for the President’s rule in a State is three years, given the state of security, it may be too early to predict that order will be restored within this time.
For beyond this bringing the demands of the two ethnic groups such as a separate administrative unit for the Kuki, to protect their ethnic, religious and territorial rights and of Scheduled Tribe status to the Meitei on the table may be a long-drawn-out process.
The complexities are many and the outcome also has a far-reaching impact in other states of the North East where identity is the core issue for many people even as Delhi is attempting to build a central one.
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