The series of terrorist incidents in the Jammu region pre-Union Territory elections and in Kashmir Valley post the formation of the government under National Conference Chief Minister Omar Abdullah underlines continued use of the tool of terror for disruption in Jammu and Kashmir by Pakistan
While containing Pakistan’s strategy of “proxy war,” has been attempted in varied forms including punitive deterrence, it is apparent that Rawalpindi – GHQ of the Pakistan Army and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) continues to exploit every opportunity provided by the stability-instability paradox of nuclear weapons in tandem with full spectrum deterrence capability to advantage by keeping the Indian state on tenterhooks at least for short periods.
It is nobody’s case that the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir would not defeat the design of terror by limiting the number of terrorist attacks in the Union Territory. However, the larger issue of continued intrinsic support to anti national elements in Kashmir as well as in Jammu may remain unaddressed.
This anti national sentiment remains largely unmapped and unrecognized due to positive narrative building but has evidently remained nascent over the past five years with the fear of state action.
The nature of operations launched by the acolytes of the Jaish e Mohammad [People’s Anti-Fascistic Front (PAFF)] and Lashkar e Taiyyaba [The Resistance Front [TRF] in Jammu and Kashmir indicates well trained and armed terrorists some of whom may also be past operatives of the Special Services Group [SSG] in Pakistan have holed out in the hinterland for days and struck at the time of own choosing. This would not have been feasible without local support.
While an elected government may provide a degree of recompense with add on of restoration of the status of a State, the resentment against repealing of Article 370 and 35 A is unlikely to subside. Any number of coercive measures such as the ‘bulldozer’ strategy is unlikely to create an atmosphere of acceptance in Kashmir as well as parts of Jammu region.
Under the circumstances there are no easy choices ahead of the Union Territory as well as the Security administration in Jammu and Kashmir, while suppression of terrorist incidents can be attained, mainstreaming of the people at large particularly in the Kashmir Valley will need creative strategies that the Indian State is unwilling to undertake given that this may entail accepting the special status not necessarily return of Article 370.
Chief Minister Omar Abdullah perhaps reflected the sentiment of the public at large in his speech in the Legislative Assembly, saying, “This assembly reflects the aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The reality is that the people of Jammu and Kashmir have not endorsed the decisions made on August 5, 2019. If they had, the results would have been different. Many of those seated on this side (treasury benches) have not accepted that decision either.”
Against this backdrop the tasks of the security forces led by the Indian Army in Jammu and Kashmir is expected to follow the established pattern of ‘winning hearts and minds,’ which can facilitate support to counter terrorism operations locally. This will be difficult if ‘bulldozer’ approach is adopted as a strategy by the administration based on directions from Delhi. More over the overall strategy will have to be driven by the government and the armies approach of Operation Sadbhavna – quality education and local assistance can make only limited gains.
Rebuilding the intelligence grid would require a return of troops deinducted from the union territory and occupying company operating bases in remote areas particularly in the Jammu region. De-escalation from Eastern Ladakh may provide a leeway for the same.
Reducing the daily series of encounters – almost two per day at present will however be the first step. Once achieved, maintaining intelligence superiority assumes importance rather than complacency a part of which is dictated by the political narrative.
Perhaps the most important lesson for the Army now and in the days ahead would be to focus on military operations regardless of the storyline. Reality is the essence of combat. Saving people’s and soldiers’ lives is more important than pandering to the dominant narrative or the lure of technology and ‘artificial intelligence [AI].’ Human sentiment mapping is the way ahead.
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