The past week cross border attacks by Iran and Pakistan allegedly on terrorist groups operating in the neighbours territory has raised concerns of escalation. These are demonstrative signaling rather than a commitment to eradicate terrorism and tensions may taper off in the coming weeks,
As per the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, on Tuesday, 16 January 2024, the Border Taskforce of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force, situated in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, took a preventive action against a terrorist group preparing to infiltrate the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran to carry out another terrorist operation similar to the criminal and terrorist attack in Rask.
The action including missile and drone attacks but was not indicated as such by the Iranian Foreign Ministry. It claimed that the attacks was carried out against the terrorist group's barracks and headquarters located in the heights of the region, kilometers away from residential areas––a procedure which is part of the inherent duties of the border forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran to “proportionately deal” with any “imminent terrorist threat” against the people and citizens of the country.
While Iranian authorities did not name the terrorist group, it is well known that Jaish al-Adl, or so called Army of Justice, made up of members of the Sunni militant group Jundullah, was the target. The group has claimed responsibility for several attacks against Iranian security forces, including an attack on a police station in December 2023 that killed 11 people and has continued with the attacks targeting an IRGC senior commander on January 17.
Pakistan said the strikes killed two children, came after Tehran conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria in response to bombings which left scores of people dead in Iran. Thus indicating that the Jaish al Adl Group was not effectively intercepted.
The Ministry also emphasized that the Islamic Republic of Iran differentiates between Pakistan's friendly and brotherly government and armed terrorists.
Pak Retaliation
On 18 January 2024, Pakistan launched a series of air and artillery strikes inside Iran, targeting Baloch separatist groups, codenamed Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar in response to the Iranian missile strikes in Pakistan, two days earlier.
Ali Reza Marhamati, a deputy governor in the Iranian province where the strikes took place, said three women, four children, and two men were killed in the attacks, according to the Associated Press.
Meanwhile Pakistan claimed that the attacks were launched to target the Baloch insurgent groups. Baluch Liberation Army, one of the separatist group, said the strikes had killed its members. “Pakistan will have to pay a price for it,” the organization said. “Now the Baluch Liberation Army will not remain silent. We will avenge it and we announce war on the state of Pakistan.”
Baloch insurgent groups have been actively targeting Pakistan Army, Civilians as well as Chinese working on the CPEC projects in Balochistan.
Counter Terror Commitment
While the cross border attacks have raised much uproar, that was possibly the Iranian intent to create a space in the ongoing military developments in the Middle East demonstrating its missile and striking capabilities to the regional actors as well as at home where the people are worrying about lack of security which has led to attacks as the Kerman suicide blast this month.
On the whole counter terror commitment of the Iranian authorities is sporadic targeting of the Jaish al Adl. The Islamic State which has made some recent ingress in Iran including the Kerman attack is an elusive entity which has not been effectively neutralized.
Pakistan’s approach to terror is equally episodic as the country has seen a spike in strikes mainly by the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan [TTP] a Pashtun group affiliated to the Afghan Taliban apart from the Baloch insurgents.
Despite claims by the Pakistan Army, these groups have continued to strike with impunity and the Chinese have sought special security including armoured protection during movement in Balochistan.
The cross border strike is unlikely to have a major impact on neutralizing the Baloch groups.
However, this could also be a signal to the Afghan Taliban of possible actions in case they continue to provide sanctuaries to the TTP and support its ideological cause.
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