The United States Department of Defence China Military Power Report 2024 has been released. This covers the developments in the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] a generic term that also includes the PLA Navy and the Air Force.
While the mapping is from a US perspective and other think tanks and analysts have also been undertaking such studies from time to time, the China Military Power Report 2024 [Report] provides a reasonable state of PLA modernization and capabilities including some major weaknesses.
The primary objective of the Indian armed forces being war avoidance – deterrence assumes importance. As gleaned from the Report it is evident that there could be gaps arising in terms of conventional as well as strategic deterrence with the PLA in the years ahead due to exponentially higher budgetary allocations, focus on modernization and willingness to publicly identify weaknesses and thus attempt to improve the same.
Despite the recent rapprochement on disengagement on the Line of Actual Control with China, Indian armed forces need to commit to constant upgradation of combat capabilities and avoid a situation where China in tandem with Pakistan is emboldened to take recourse to escalation to meet its strategic objectives.
A general review of the areas which can create a deterrence gap is as given below.
National Objectives
China’s continuous expansion of comprehensive national power in all its attributes from the economic, military to information and cyber aims to achieve “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049,” and provide Beijing with enough heft to :revise the international order in support of the PRC's system of governments and its national interests”.
India is also looking at the century from independence to seek developed nation status or, “Viksit Bharat.” While there is scope for both the emerging powers to grow in parallel, a conflict could also be inevitable and thus needs caution.
Strategic Accretions
The increase in the number of nuclear warheads is an area of concern which the Report estimates have crossed 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024 and will exceed over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.
This also provides China with a diversified nuclear force comprising of, “low yield, precision strike missiles, all the way up to ICBMs with different options at basically every rung on the escalation ladder.”
As per SIPRI estimates of 2023, India has approximately 170 warheads. While nuclear deterrence is not strictly matching number of warheads, the possibility of China’s review of the long held No First Use, deploying MIRVs which take up more number of warheads and expanding the delivery potential by developing strategic bombers should be watched with concern.
Force Modernisation
The 2027 markers set by Chairman of the CMC and President Xi Jinping for modernization are integrating through mechanization informatization and intelligentization of the PRC's armed forces. In such a scenario which is just three years away the PLA will be able to deploy modernized forces which can pose significant challenges on the battlefield. Going forward 2035 and 2049 are indicated as completion of modernization and becoming a world-class military respectively.
Amongst the accretion in capabilities of the PLA marked by the Report in 2023 are long range joint fires, modernization and indigenization of its unmanned aerial systems which is “quickly approaching US standards”.
The United State estimates that while presently there is a deterrence advantage that prevents an outbreak of hostilities, this may be gradually eroded due to PLA focus on modernization unless parallel accretions are not undertaken.
Defence Budget
In terms of Defence Budget the Report estimates a projected US $ 330 to 440 billion in terms of actual defense spending. This would be five to seven times higher than India’s defence spending. While it is nobody’s case for India matching up to these levels, however there is a necessity for higher allocations, prioritization and more efficient management of the defence budget to obtain, ‘more bang from the buck’.
Exploiting PLA’s Five Incapables
The PLA is publicly acknowledging what is referred to as “five incapables”. These include inability of commanders to make sound judgment of the military situation, inability to absorb higher commanders intentions, making independent operational decisions, effective deployment of forces and in crisis or emergency management arising from unexpected situations. Urban warfare and “long distance logistics,” are some other weaknesses that can be exploited.
At the same time through constant conduct of combat oriented exercises, the PLA could be expected to overcome these differences in the medium to long term [5 to 15 years]. Tailoring own operations to exploit these weaknesses is thus a sine qua non for the Indian Armed Forces by constantly creating surprise at the point of decision posing a tactical and operational dilemma to PLA commanders.
Conclusion
India's goal of Viksit Bharat and China's Rejuvenation dream are running concurrently to reach 2047 and 2049 respectively. While both countries are civilisationally against wars, yet a misperception of perceived weakness could create a situtation of armed conflict.
This is best avoided by ensuring matching capabilities and not just emphasis on a "narrative," which appears to be the trend in the Indian strategic sphere today.
As the recent Iran and Israel military exchange goes, it is not the narrative but hard military power that is the ultimate shield of security.
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