Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was India’s closest partner in the region. In the last 15 years of her government in Bangladesh, India Bangladesh relations remained on a high keel with considerable benefits accruing from security in the Northeast to transit, trade and people to people relations. Building a secular Bangladesh was another of Hasina’s achievements lauded by India. There were some sore points as well from sharing of river waters to defence procurements by Bangladesh from China and alleged highhandedness of the Indian Border Security Forces [BSF] on the border. To her credit India and Hasina moved forward despite these kinks.
However, it should have been evident to the Indian establishment that the relationship was not sustainable due to several factors from polarization of politics in the country, the socio political environment with space for religious fundamentalists to Hasina’s attempts to systematically erode democratic institutions evident before and since the 2018 parliamentary elections.
The groundswell of public opinion against the Awami League was palpable and Indian intelligence agencies should have been aware of this reality.
Given the political culture of Bangladesh, a change was foreordained, though not many including this writer saw it coming suddenly on August 05, just about a month ago.
Establishing contacts with the political opposition was a fall-back option which should have been exercised by New Delhi but was always difficult as Hasina did not tolerate contacts with other parties and was very sensitive to such overtures.
Thus, possibly the engagement with political opposition was limited or worse still adversarial.
Now that the reality has manifested after she was flown out to Delhi on August 05, the return of Hasina or the Awami League in Bangladesh does not appear a practical proposition in the medium term.
There is thus a need for rapid review of Bangladesh policy by New Delhi and engage with the interim administration led by Dr Mohamad Yunus and the Army which is calling the shots from behind.
While doing so mindful of the presence of Hasina in New Delhi will always be a difficult choice for the Indian establishment but India needs to work on core interests in engagement with Bangladesh rather than sulking on past legacy.
There are evident opportunities to do so with contacts having made at the highest level between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Chief Adviser Dr Mohammad Yunus directly on one occasion and his participation in the Global South Summit virtually last month.
Another prospect exists with the two [PM and Yunus] likely to be in New York for the General Assembly session.
Dr Muhammad Yunus has in a media interview indicated that Dhaka values ties with India and seeks New Delhi to move "beyond the narrative that portrays every other political party except Awami League as Islamist and that the country will turn into Afghanistan without Sheikh Hasina."
Indeed this overture can be called as conditional by some.
At the same Yonus raised constant flagging of the threat to minority an irritant.
"The issue of trying to portray the conditions of minorities in such a big way is just an excuse," he said adding, "We need to work together to improve this relationship, which is now at a low."
Due to the sudden flux, thorny issues in India Bangladesh relations have risen to the fore in the last one month from strong sentiment in India of attacks on minorities in Bangladesh to claims of release of river waters by Dhaka.
Contacts at the highest level if renewed in New York will have to be followed up through established mechanisms such as coordination of the border guarding forces of the two countries, a meeting that is scheduled in the near future.
A visit by the Foreign Secretary or the External Affairs Minister maybe too early to attempt but is inevitable in the near future if relations are to be reset. Bangladesh will have to overlook the presence of Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi, a tall order indeed under present circumstances.
The Indian mission in Dhaka is active and functioning under very difficult circumstances attempting to build greater confidence which would need greater support.
The present focus will remain on the interim administration as elections are unlikely soon and thus there is time to establish contacts with diverse political forces in the country.
Meanwhile role of the media in India also assumes importance. There is much hype over targeting of minorities in Bangladesh and rise of fundamental forces in that country. While there is an element of truth blowing this out of proportion including spreading of misinformation even by mainstream outlets is most undesirable and will not facilitate engagement with the new order in that country.
Moreover, if carried too far, this may ironically prove to be a “self prophecy” for the future.
In the absence of re-establishment of confidence and sustained engagement with the interim administration, India will be losing out on the considerable gains made during the Hasina years as there are many in Bangladesh particularly the economic and trading community which is keen to sustain ties in a meaningful manner.
The consequences of leaving the field open are amply clear as anti India forces have rapidly entered the breach. Pakistan has relaxed visa fees for citizens from 126 countries, including Bangladesh, to travel without a visa fee.
Pakistan's High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Syed Ahmad Maroof is in touch with Home Affairs Adviser Lt Gen (Retd) Md Jahangir Alam Chowdhury and it is believed delegations from that country are expected to be given a green light for visits.
China continues to have a strong hand having built bipolar relations with– the Awami League and the opposition BNP.
In recent years India has demonstrated tremendous flexibility in engaging even with adversarial political forces when seen in national interest.
For instance in Maldives where despite the inimical decisions of President Dr Mohammad Muizzu, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishanker was on a visit to Male last month and it appears that notwithstanding heavy Chinese influence the Muizzu administration is keen to sustain the strong partnership with India.
Bangladesh policy could take a similar direction, however it is far more complex than that of Maldives.
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