Disengagement maybe the first step in resetting India-China relations but to ensure a return to the status quo will involve several steps aimed at de-escalation and fostering better bilateral ties. Most analysts have expressed skepticism over trajectory of India China relations going forward beyond disengagement which both sides have now confirmed has been completed.
Going forward, what are the steps that would demonstrate how the relations between two of Asia’s most significant powers is progressing. This is important from a number of perspectives as a positive trajectory will demonstrate greater confidence in engaging in the region which has enough space for two contending powers and their partners. Regional groupings and countries will be able to manage their bilateral engagement with the two stakeholders with greater even handedness.
What would be the markers to determine the trajectory of India China Relations going forward, here are some pointers-
De-escalation: As has been expressed by the External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishanker has indicated in a number of forums that de-escalation will be the next step and work needs to be done towards the same. De-escalation entails pulling back of troops from the front line positions to the bases. Reserves would be moving to the rearward locations some to their permanent bases possibly out of Ladakh and on the Plateau area for the People’s Liberation Army [PLA]. These locations are well known to either side and would be tracked closely.
LAC Management. Concomitantly management of the LAC by structured patrolling as agreed upon on disengagement along with surveillance of activity in the buffer zone would be essential. Timing patrols to avoid clashes has been agreed upon along with strength. Use of UAVs and other means for surveillance is not clear so far, but an agreement to the effect would have been worked out. Aim should be to gradually build confidence which as per understanding continues between forward commanders. This has been the norm followed even during the bitter period of contact at Doklam in June 2020. Meetings to review the same would need to be held from time to time.
Economic and Trade Relations. There is a momentum for expanding economic relations particularly investments from China. With the Trump administration expected to adopt an America First approach, India will have to look for alternatives and the rapprochement with China comes at an opportune time.
Consular Relations. Liberalisation of the visa regime with greater movement of individuals is a sine qua non to resumption of economic relations and will also facilitate movement of key persons on either side to sustain the economic momentum
Simultaneous Diplomatic Engagement: All these steps will be supported by diplomatic engagement from the ministerial to working levels. China has given positive signals so far. “Recently, President Xi Jinping met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the margins of the BRICS summit held in Kazan,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a media briefing while responding to a question on the likelihood of a meeting the two leaders on the sidelines of G20 summit in Brazil. “China stands ready to work with India to deliver on the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries, step up communication and cooperation and enhance strategic mutual trust,” he said.
The first such meeting at the ministerial level has been held as Indian External affairs minister Dr S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi met on November 18 during the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro to discuss next steps after Ladakh disengagement
Special Representatives Talks. If all goes well India's Special Representative NSA Ajit Doval will be holding talks with his Chinese counterpart State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. 20 rounds of talks have been concluded so far, the last one being in 2019. It is anticipated that this step will be after successful completion of De-escalation and confidence building in LAC management.
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