Bangladesh plays an important role in India’s “Neighbourhood First,” policy as the third most populous state in the region. Dhaka is the backstop for India’s North East. The critical Siliguri Corridor is flanked by Bangladesh in the South which is the tenuous land link to the sensitive states – the Seven Sisters. A land or a multi modal sea link can considerably shorten the time of travel and transit to say Tripura and Mizoram amongst other states. Given multiple uprisings in the North East, cross border support to these groups which had been prevalent prior to Sheikh Hasina coming to power a decade and a half ago had led to considerable security challenges. That today North East has largely seen peace is an outcome of the defanging of support to these groups by Hasina’s pro India policies amongst other factors.
For Bangladesh too, India is no less important even though Dhaka has been dabbling with China and now even Pakistan. Delhi can pose an existential threat of economic and socio religious survival of the identity of the state. Indeed, India is the only neighbour with which Bangladesh has the longest land boundary of over 4000 kms, the only other being Myanmar with a small strip shared with the Rakhine State. Apart from sea trade, all channels to Bangladesh are through India. The distinct Bangla Islamic identity is another feature that is sought to be preserved by Bangladeshi public at large. While present Interim Administration has been dabbling with deeper engagement with Pakistan, Turkey and the traditional partner China amongst others, it would be evident to those who have interests of Bangladesh at stake that there is no option but to have proximate engagement with India.
Apart from her affiliation with India due to legacy of the Awami League during the War of Liberation, Sheikh Hasina was aware of this reality and thus sought sustained engagement with New Delhi. But contrary to the prevalent belief in Dhaka at present she also deftly balanced India with China amongst others.
There is no doubt that India’s foreign policy mandarins continued to provide Hasina far greater leeway despite her autocratic ways without visualizing the history of Bangladesh which has overturned many a leader in the past either through a coup, assassination or mass uprising as witnessed in July – August 2025. Having placed all their eggs in the Hasina basket so to say New Delhi found its Bangladesh policy in tatters as an order led by Professor Mohammad Yunus replaced her. Apart from being a bete noire of Sheikh Hasina, Professor Mohammad Yunus was the choice of the Anti Reservation Students Movement [ARSM]now transformed into the National Citizen Party. The intrinsic hostility was exacerbated with the orders by Hasina and her cohorts to use maximum violence against demonstrators until the Bangladesh Army – where the Buck finally stopped. That Hasina was hurriedly airlifted to Delhi where she continues to stay has thus also emerged as a hot button issue.
In the post August 5 violence which disparate forces including elements of the ARSM, political parties, conservative Islamists and criminals participated, minorities and their religious institutions were seen in India as key targets. This impacted the core support base of India’s ruling dispensation headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party, leading to further deterioration of relations between the two sides, with uncontrolled media adding fuel to the fire. The media excess has only given a handle to Bangladesh leaders calling such inputs as misinformation. Meanwhile open statements criticizing events in Dhaka is seen by Bangladesh as unwanted comments on internal developments. This and many similar factors have led to India Bangladesh relations reaching new lows each day. Yet both countries cannot afford to let this all important relationship slip out of hands which will be detrimental each other’s interests.
It is not the mandate for us to dictate what needs to be done to restore the relationship between the two neighbours only to highlight challenges of not doing so and concerns that in case a determination is not made, spoilers on the margins be it state actors, radical religious and terrorist groups are waiting to take advantage.
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