Col R Hariharan highlights the ‘firsts’ of the AKD government but these may not be enough to cruise through the troubled waters of Sri Lanka politics. The waters are filled with sharks and crocodiles who have been deprived of power.
Sri Lanka Perspectives November 2024
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (popularly known as AKD) led National Peoples Power (NPP)’s landslide victory in the general election in November 2024 two-thirds majority - in parliament, sends many signals. The NPP – which sported Sinhala nationalism as its USP – won 159 seats in most of the seats in 22 of the electoral districts barring Batticaloa. This clearly indicated people all over the country regardless of their ethnicity or religion wanted a change, probably disgusted with the conduct of mainstream national parties.
There are many firsts in AKD’s government. The cabinet of 21 ministers sworn in on November 24 is the smallest ever in Sri Lanka’s democratic history. It has its first woman prime minister in three decades, that too one not belonging to a political family. As every member of the cabinet is a graduate, it is also perhaps the most educated cabinet ever. We are told that among the 21 members are three professors and three doctors—two allopathic ones and the PM herself an academic doctorate holder. All of them come without any political baggage, so people will expect them to maintain it. It is also a cabinet full of the inexperienced, as only two of them including AKD have been ministers earlier. While the ministers have the potential to work smartly, AKD has the additional burden of leading an inexperienced team that will be steering the nation towards progress. They will be expected to go the extra mile to deliver on their promises.
There are other firsts too, like 20 women – mostly from non-political families - have been elected as members of parliament. They include two women MPs Krishnan Kaleychelvi from Nuwara Eliya and Ambika Samuel from Badulla from among the hill country Tamils. The NPP should be commended for another first – nomination of Sugath Wasantha De Silva, a visually challenged person - to parliament. De Silva is a well-known activist for the rights of the visually impaired and disabled communities. It showed the government has recognised the need for parliamentary representation for the country’s 1.3 million disabled persons.
But ‘firsts’ alone may not help AKD government to cruise through the troubled waters of Sri Lanka politics. The waters are filled with sharks and crocodiles who have been deprived of power. They may be lying low now, but not for long because they are well versed in political shenanigans. AKD must avoid two icebergs – economic progress and ending majoritarian politics – that have the potential to stall, if not sink, his government as earlier governments had done
Economic progress
The NPP had rubbished a crucial deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), when President Ranil Wickremesinghe had successfully negotiated the 48 month long IMF programme. In spite of this President Dissanayake has been pragmatic enough to understand it as essential for economic recovery. Shortly after his election as President, AKD had assured a high-powered IMF delegation that his government will implement severe austerity and privatisation measures. So, it was not surprising that IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the third review under the nation’s Extended Fund Facility arrangement. IMF Sri Lanka Senior Mission Chief Peter Breuer urged the government to increase social spending in the upcoming budget. He commended the government for its ambitious reform program but stressed the importance of inclusivity in the nation’s economic recovery. He added “Maintaining macroeconomic stability and restoring debt sustainability is key to securing Sri Lanka’s prosperity and requires persevering with responsible fiscal policy. Continued revenue mobilization efforts and spending restraint are needed to prepare the 2025 budget in line with program objectives.”
It is going to be difficult for the government to soften the impact of tax burden without affecting revenue generation. Similarly, privatisation of state-owned enterprises is not going to be easy as NPP controlled trade unions are against it.
The budget making exercise slated for February 2025 is going to test the skills of the NPP government in the clash between its ideology and IMF conditionalities. Under the circumstances, the news that Sri Lanka has been selected as one of 20 countries to establish a World Bank Group (WBG) integrated office, set to open in July 2025 should be heartwarming to AKD. WBG President Ajay Banga shared the news during a virtual meeting with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and government officials to discuss Sri Lanka’s future development priorities. The establishment of the integrated South Asia office is expected to improve coordination between the four key WB institutions: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).
Ending Sinhala majoritarian politics
President Dissanayake in his address to parliament has called for a political culture free of racism and divisiveness. He said that democracy does not mean forcing everyone to unite under a single umbrella, but rather letting diverse viewpoints and ethnic interests flourish against the backdrop of multi-party politics. “We do not advocate for one-party rule,” he declared. “It is the responsibility of our government to represent and address the needs and aspirations of all citizens – regardless of whether they voted for us or not.” It showed AKD has recognised Sinhala majoritarian politics practised overtly or covertly by successive governments as the core problem of Sri Lanka.
There are two aspects to Sinhala majoritarian politics. One relates to - managing Tamil nationalist aspirations and the other coming to terms with Muslim community. They are interrelated in some respects because both Tamils and Muslims are wary of their distinct religious, linguistic and cultural identities being subsumed by Sinhala majoritarian politics. In the past, fringe elements of Theravada Buddhism have been let loose against Muslims to achieve political ends of the ruling party. Three decades of Tamil separatist war, provokes latent fears of Sinhalas when Tamil politicians use separatist rhetoric of Tamil nationalism to garner votes even now.
Given this background, the biggest surprise in the general election was NPP winning most of the seats in all the five electoral districts of North and Eastern provinces North except of course Batticaloa. These provinces are populated mostly by Tamils and Muslims. The NPP won three of the six seats in Jaffna in the heartland of Sri Lankan Tamils. It clearly showed that Tamils cannot be taken for granted by Tamil political parties and leaders by Tamil nationalist rhetoric alone. It was clear tha Tamils, like the Sinhala aspired for a change in national leadership.
This confers a huge responsibility on AKD’s government not only to fulfil longstanding aspirations of Tamils and Muslims that have been promised many times but not met fully so far. At the same time AKD and NPP has to retain its grass roots support among the Sinhala majority nurtured on majoritarian political rhetoric. This is going to be the biggest challenge of AKD government.
The government allowing the people in the North to observe Maaveerar Naal (Heroes Day) on November 27 to honour their deceased relatives in the Eelam wars is a typical case in point. The government clarified that while individuals will not be prevented from remembering their loved ones who died during the country’s civil war. But they must refrain from displaying any logos, uniforms or images related to the LTTE, as it remains a proscribed organisation.This is more easily said, than done, because pro-LTTE rhetoric is the lifeblood of many Tamil parties.
According to a Sunday Times report Tamil politician MK Sivajilingam. organised an event to mark the slain LTTE leader V Prabhakaran’s birthday that fell on the previous day—November 26 at an empty land in Valvettiturai where the ancestral house of Prabhakaran was destroyed by security forces. A banner was put up with the picture of Prabhakaran. Local police got into action immediately to cover the image with tape but allowed the event to go ahead without any disturbances. The newly elected independent Tamil MP from Chavakacheri Dr Archuna Ramanathan has called LTTE leader V Prabhakaran his god in a podcast. Such provocative statements are likely to be exploited by hardline Sinhala leaders fringe elements and opposition parties.
AKD government has one Tamil representative from the North. Ramalingam Chandrasekar, picked by NPP as a national list MP, has been made Minister for Fisheries, a post held for long by Douglas Devananda, the EPDP leader. This is the only ministerial post given to a Tamil representative from Northern Province.
For the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, there is no Muslim in the cabinet. This is perhaps the biggest vulnerability of AKD’s government. Even pro-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), founded on the bedrock of Sinhala majoritarian politics, had a Muslim minister in their cabinet. President Dissanayake has loftily declared that “no one will be allowed to use nationalist or religious rhetoric as a means to gain political power in this country”. Historically such declarations by Presidents came to nought when Sinhala Buddhist fringe elements went on a rampage against Muslims. Muslims have been on the defensive since April 2019 when jihadi elements carried out Easter Sunday bombings killing 269 people including 45 foreigners. Politically, the wounds caused by the jihadi attack have not healed. Findings of inquiries and commissions appointed to look into the jihadi attacks have been mired in controversy. The AKD government is trying to bring the controversy to a closure should be wary of yet another bout of anti-Muslim campaign by mainstream opposition parties.
To sum up, the AKD government’s journey is not going to be easy despite the two-thirds majority enjoyed in parliament. Opposition parties, particularly which have been mauled like the SLPP, are not going to allow the government to fulfil people’s expectations. AKD should have a wider consultative process, beyond his party. He should build bridges with opposition parties and civil society leaders so that there is a broad consensus on key issues that are included in the NPP agenda. It is important to tame Sinhala majoritarianism so that the spirit of nationalism shown by minorities in voting for the NPP to power is rewarded.
[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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