The terrorist threat in the Jammu region is manageable, provided the state is not in denial and takes concerted action to neutralize the same through security and political measures gaining public support and avoiding the lure of rhetoric.
Here is an overview-
Even as the Indian state was engaged in the largest electoral exercise in the World, the Lok Sabha polls from February this year onwards, the sinister machinations fostering terrorism were also working to disrupt the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir which was also expected to go in for polls by September this year.
Electoral rhetoric on Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, denial of prevalence of terrorism and a false sense of security all played into the scheme of things promoted by Pakistan’s proxy war handlers looking for new ways to undermine the Indian state.
The saturation of security forces in Kashmir and the vacuum in Jammu was there for exploitation.
While there were several terrorist incidents in the Kashmir Valley during the period of June July this year, these did not engage public attention as much as a series in the Jammu region did in the months of June and July even though incidents were ongoing since January this year.
According to news agency PTI, twelve security personnel, including an Army major, and 10 civilians have died while 55 people were injured in terrorist attacks since January 1. In the past 32 months, 48 soldiers have been killed in action in the Jammu region.
A series of incidents including attack on a civilian bus in Reasi district which also contains the holy shrine of Vaishno Devi and two attacks on army trucks in Kathua and Doda districts raised an alarm.
As per DGP Jammu and Kashmir Mr RR Swain around 110 foreign terrorists were active across J&K while 23 local terrorists were operating in Kashmir region and four in Jammu region. These figures are unlikely to have included the numbers who are involved in the recent terrorist incidents in Jammu region.
What do we know so far?
An analysis of the incidents reveals the following-
A group of highly trained terrorists have infiltrated in two tiers – the first is operating close to the Line of Control and the International Border in the districts of Poonch and Rajauri. These could in fact be turning around from time to time thus ensuring continuity of presence in this belt.
The second group is operating deep inside in Doda, Kathua hill segment and Udhampur districts.
Reasi district is possibly falling in the middle tier.
Eleven incidents of terrorist attacks cum encounters have taken place in the Jammu region in June and July spread across the three tiers indicated above.
This denotes several different groups are involved in the same.
That these have infiltrated from the well guarded and heavily fenced International Border and LOC is clear exploiting gaps in the border arisen due to laxity or exploited through a nexus with security forces and locals in the border areas.
The terrorists are well armed and surviving in the interior indicating a level of local support, these could be local terrorists or sympathisers or support obtained through coercive means.
That the locals have not come up to report the presence is a matter of concern and is indicative of a tacit sympathy for these infiltrators.
As the situation in the Jammu region has improved, lifting of the security grid was inevitable. It is apparent that the intelligence grid in the form of policing and political activity to fill up the gap was obviously lacking.
Not just intelligence failure this marks lack of political activity in the form of elections in the Union Territory for the past five years, resulting in lack of outreach by the political leadership and mere administrative actions which did not raise degree of confidence in the locals. Locals were vulnerable to dissension without realizing the violent consequences of the same.
Union Minister Jitendra Singh seems to have alluded to this phenomenon of lack of effective public support. “The recent terror incidents (in Jammu region) carried out by infiltrators from Pakistan is condemnable. But repeatedly saying that Pakistan has done this is not sufficient. We have to ask ourselves and inner-souls what we have done to end social evils which are benefitting terrorism,” the minister of state in the prime minister’s office told reporters in Kathua.
What needs to be done?
Strengthening the counter infiltration grid in Jammu and Kashmir and in Punjab is a foremost necessity. Additional deployments in tiers may be essential and would possibly have been undertaken by now to prevent further infiltration.
Given the number of groups estimated to be varying from 10 to 15 that are likely to be operating in the Jammu region comprising of 10 to 12 highly trained Pak terrorists which some have ascribed to the so called Kashmir Tigers, a force sponsored by the Jaish e Mohammad and supported by the Pakistan Army, Search and Destroy and Seeking encounter missions will have to be launched in the area.
These will have to be based on mobile hard hitting teams based on the infantry commando units or ghataks or special forces which are heliborne for launch of speedy operations based on local information.
Relentless pursuit of such missions by mobile ground and helicopter patrols is essential.
These patrols will have to comprise of trained personnel and always move tactically to avoid being ambushed.
To generate the information simultaneously reaching out to locals through leaders and expanding the grid of the Village Defence Guards for generating hard intelligence is essential.
Statement such as that by DGP of J&K Police RR Swain blaming the regional parties for Pakistan’s ‘successful’ infiltration into the Kashmiri civil society need to be strictly avoided.
In fact, veteran of the Kashmir insurgency, Additional Director General (Law and Order) of Jammu and Kashmir Police Vijay Kumar was categorical in stating that the statement by DGP RR Swain could be his “personal opinion.” “Jammu and Kashmir Police has been an apolitical force from the beginning. We work with impartiality. The statement of the DGP could be his personal opinion. We are a professional force, apolitical and impartial,” said Vijay Kumar.
The need is for political unity as much as security unity.
Through a concerted campaign the terrorists must be neutralized relentlessly and till the last man is dead or captured alive this will have to continue even extending into the winter.
There is no option but to take the campaign to a logical conclusion of elimination of terror threat in the Jammu region.
Simultaneously political activity must be resumed and early state elections is the answer.
Conclusion
The terrorist threat in the Jammu region is manageable, provided the state is not in denial and takes concerted action to neutralize the same through security and political measures gaining public support, isolating and neutralizing about 10 to15 terrorist groups at most who are operating in this zone.
Over reaction needs to be avoided while ensuring security of the Line of Control, military and police bases and movement is important, in short Jammu has to adopt a counter militancy posture albeit for a short period of three to six months.
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