The news from Riyadh is encouraging for the US President Donald Trump, his ambition berated by many of bringing the war in Ukraine to a close has inched forward, yet whether there will be finality in closure of the first and a significant step at that – Cease Fire for 30 days remains to be seen?
The reasons for apprehension are that a Cease Fire will be the least best option for Russia.
Seeing in the near term, here is why-
Cease fires are brokered by large powers amongst what were known earlier as “Third World” now embellished as the “Global South”.
India Pakistan have seen many such cease fires at least one brokered by the Soviet Union in 1965.
Multiple cease fires have occurred in the Middle East between Israel and Egypt for instance and now with the Hamas in Gaza an ongoing one.
A cease fire by the U.S. equates Russia with the largest nuclear arsenal in the World equates in some ways to these smaller powers.
Secondly the terms are being set by the Ukraine, though it is not clear for now if the US team in Riyadh had discussed some of these issues with their Moscow counterparts, that remains to be seen?
Thirdly Russia saw the military on the roll with the Kursk counter offensive going its way and cut back of US intelligence and arms support to Ukraine, now that has been rolled back, indicating that a week may be too long a period in geopolitics particularly with President Donald Trump in the chair in White House.
Fourthly rejection of the offer of Cease Fire will only imply that Russia could resume the mantle of an aggressor which Mr Trump had so deftly and wrongfully ascribed to the US. A Trump scorned is a dangerous person as the Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky realised after the spat in the White House. What is unreeled from Washington remains to be seen despite the warm relations that are reported between Mr Trump and the Russian President Mr Vladimir Putin.
In the larger perspective, Russia’s aims of the War were subjugation of Ukraine as a sovereign state, replacing Mr Zelensky with a Moscow favoured leader, denial of NATO membership to Kyiv and realignment of the political ferment in that country – something on the lines of Russia’s relations with Belarus today.
This is apparently not working given that withdrawal of US support to Ukraine in political terms for now has only led to a new determination in Europe that was absent for many years – to prepare for a military [and nuclear] challenge from Russia.
The E 5 Group to include the UK, France, Germany, Poland and Italy are now preparing for a joint bloc of sorts which will sustain their military capabilities sans the United States.
Whether there would be any troop deployment on Ukrainian soil remains to be seen, but the E5 will certainly up the deterrence of Ukraine as well as Europe to prevent a further threat from Russia.
The fillip to rearmament in Europe is another factor. Unsure of an US umbrella, finally European powers are determined to invest in defence and possibly even nuclear weapons thus shifting the dynamics in Europe for the first time after the Second World War.
Of course, given recent experience of the Trump administrations flip flops, there are many uncertainties ahead, for instance if Ukraine is willing to give up territorial sovereignty over areas that are presently under Russian control, Moscow could still see a win.
If Ukraine holds Presidential elections and Mr Zelensky fails to be re-elected that will be another gain for Russia.
On the whole though even if the cease fire goes forward into a tangible agreement to cease hostilities – a profile as that on the Korean Peninsula or the Indo Pakistan Line of Control will only imply the possibility of outbreak of hostilities remain on the radar and permanent peace will remain distant.
Comments