One would say that 2025 has seen a good start temporarily recessing one of the two most violent wars raging across the globe – the War in Gaza between Israel and the Hamas. But there is no respite on the War in Ukraine.
This gives an occasion to examine the factors that had led to cease fire in Gaza while why the Ukraine War may continue in the months ahead.
Cease Fire Conditions in Gaza
Firstly, the conditions of the Cease Fire in Gaza.
As per multiple media sources on the 470th day of the War in Gaza the first phase of a three phase cease fire is in place
The first phase will last six weeks, and involves a limited prisoner exchange, partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and an increase in aid to the Palestinian enclave. Thirty-three Israeli captives, including women, children and civilians over the age of 50 – taken during the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023 – will be released.
The first three have been released on January 19, in turn several Palestinian prisoners have been released by Israel on January 20.
Israel is set to withdraw forces from Gaza’s population centres to areas no more than 700 metres inside Gaza’s border Israel excluding the Netzarim Corridor.
Israel will allow civilians to return to their homes in the north and also increasing delivery of aid up to 600 trucks per day.
Israel will also allow wounded Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip for treatment and open the Rafah crossing with Egypt seven days after the start of the implementation of the first phase.
Israeli forces will reduce their presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, the border area between Egypt and Gaza, and then withdraw completely no later than the 50th day after the deal comes into effect.
Details of the second and third phases, though understood to be agreed to in principle, are to be negotiated during the first phase. US President Joe Biden has said that the ceasefire will continue even if the negotiations on the second and third phases go beyond the initial six weeks of the first phase.
While at best the first phase which has commenced a day ago maybe the beginning of a series of phases of negotiated settlement of the most critical issues including release of hostages – unfortunately only a few who are survivors and humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza who are in a dire state.
Peace remains fractious and is uncertain, nevertheless for the first time there is hope.
Mirror Imaging - Analysing Possibility of a Cease Fire in Ukraine
Does this provide a optimism for a cease fire in the Ukraine.
Unfortunately, after a comparison of factors that had led to a cease fire in Gaza and the prevailing circumstances in the Russia Ukraine War one cannot be sanguine.
A factorial analysis of the war and politics of negotiations will bring out the stark reality.
Firstly, despite large number of human lives lost, the Gaza War remains a shadow of that in Ukraine. The two parties Hamas and Israel can be influenced to make peace by internal and external stakeholders. A relative situation is not evident in Ukraine.
Domestic pressure on the Israeli government for seeking release of the hostages has been intense in the last one year or more. There is no such demand in Ukraine or in Russia to end the War.
In Russia, the government has ensured that apart from groups as Mothers of the Conscripts, public protests over the war are limited.
In Ukraine the Government has been able to ensure sustained support for regaining territorial sovereignty while Russian bombardment of civilian areas has only increased determination of the general public to sustain the war.
Israel and Hamas are dependent on external political actors who can influence them to sue for peace.
United States a key ally of Israel is seen critical to persuade the Netanyahu government for a cease fire. The political leadership of Hamas having been degraded due to decapacitation of key leaders by Israel is amenable to negotiate.
Relative influence by international community on Russia and Ukraine has very limited impact though there are multiple other factors entailed.
The military capability and will to continue the fight had been exhausted in the Gaza War. Israel having gained success on the Northern Front and the unexpected collapse of Syrian regime under Bashar al Assad possibly thought it best to cut the losses in Gaza and make a cease fire.
The Hamas too was possibly at the end of the tethers.
Clearly such a situation is not evident as both Russia and Ukraine continue to demonstrate the military capability to continue the fight despite heavy losses incurred.
Political will of the leaders of Ukraine and Russia remains unaffected to pursue the war option.
Economic exhaustion is one factor that may dictate the need for an early cease fire.
With additional and more stringent round of sanctions by the United States last week, how this impacts Russia remains to be seen and in any case the influence will be felt earliest in six months to a year.
Another factor is achievement of war aims – there is no evidence that either Russia or Ukraine is anywhere near achieving these nor is there any impression that there is recognition that these are unachievable – as was the case with Israel and the Hamas.
Russia aims to secure territorial gains and weaken Ukraine's sovereignty, while Ukraine seeks to restore its full territorial integrity and receive security guarantees.
Moreover, in terms of principles – while the Hamas has been taught a lesson for its cowardly terror attacks on October 07, 2023, Russia’s violations of UN charter by use of force has now become a fait accompli.
Thus, multiple factors indicate that the cease fire in the Middle East may not show that there will be a reflection in the War in Ukraine – which may continue until exhaustion sets in.
This may come about with the economy biting Moscow in such a way that Mr Putin decides to recess the fighting or if the Western miliary and economic aid is exhausted either due to the Trump factor or otherwise Kyiv is willing to temporarily at least stop the fighting.
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