Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a unique grouping that spans the South and Southeast Asian region. BIMSTEC includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. BIMSTEC aims to enhance regional cooperation between South Asia and Southeast Asia.
The secretariat of the organization is in Dhaka and members attach immense importance to the organization.
One of the aim of BIMSTEC is, “To create an enabling environment for rapid economic development through identification and implementation of specific cooperation projects in the already agreed areas of cooperation and such other areas that may be agreed upon by the Member States. Member States may periodically review the areas of cooperation”.
The aim of setting up the regional grouping was to revive the connectivity and common interests of the members of the Bay of Bengal region which spanned South and South East Asia.
Recent political flux in the region indicates that the realization of seamless integration of the region could have received a setback. Here is a mapping of some of the challenges facing regional amalgamation.
Political Developments
In Bangladesh, long time leader and proponent of regional integration Sheikh Hasina has been deposed as the prime minister in a soft coup of sorts triggered by a student agitation. Hasina is now in virtual exile in Delhi and an army supporting the interim government led by Professor Mohammad Yunus is now in office staffed by technocrats.
Transition and establishment of a stable long-term government is some time away.
In neighbouring Myanmar, the military coup of February 2021 ostensibly to correct flawed elections has seen an outbreak of civil war with the latest development being reports of the self-nominated President and long-time military commander Senior General Min Aung Hlaing reportedly detained by a group of fellow generals which has been denied now.
With a civil war raging in Myanmar, as the military has lost control over large tracts, a return to stability is unlikely soon.
The plans for an Asian highway connecting India to the ASEAN members is now unlikely to be fructified soon.
Thailand one of the most prosperous in the region has been noticeable for political instability for a number of years with the military having just handed over power after almost five years in elections that were held in 2023.
Yet the most popular party, the Move Forward Party which won 151 MP seats 10 more than the second largest Pheu Thai has been barred by the Constitutional court.
The sitting Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has just been disqualified from holding office by a Constitutional Court.
Now a fractious coalition will have to look for another acceptable leader while the Thai military waiting in the wings.
Sri Lanka goes for Presidential elections on September 21, to elect a leader who will lead an economic recovery aided by the International Monetary Fund [IMF] that is not yet on a path of sustainability.
Nepal in the North has just gone through a change in government the fourth in the past two years with a coalition that should provide for stability,
While India and Bhutan seem to be the only members of the BIMSTEC which are politically stable.
Mitigation Strategies
Democracies can and are flexible to absorb change in government through a process of free and fair elections.
However, unexpected political transition through a process of popular agitation on the streets as in Bangladesh and in Sri Lanka in 2022 or a military and constitutional coup as in Myanmar and Thailand respectively create concerns of instability that can have deleterious long-term impact.
Mitigating these will require institutional stability where political parties fail to keep order, the court must be fair while law and order agencies should be capable of handling unrest of the magnitude that occurred in Bangladesh.
However, when thousands of people hit the street, the militaries also throw in the towel as was seen in Dhaka recently and in Colombo in 2022 for there is a breakdown of the social contract between the elite and the public at large.
To ensure the government of the day is accountable requires a vibrant opposition as in India or a head of state who has the welfare of the people upper most as a benign monarchy in Bhutan.
Any regime based on flawed elections or a system that has extra constitutional institutions having a legacy of power grab is a sure sign of instability ahead.
Emphasis on building sustainable political systems with independent institutions needs to be part of the business of groupings as the BIMSTEC, without that these will remain worse than talk shops sucking resources that could well be deployed elsewhere.
Can such an objective be incorporated in the purposes of an organization as BIMSTEC which has only economic aims remains to be seen?
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