The sudden departure of Sheikh Hasina the Prime Minister in Bangladesh for the past 15 years has led to a political turmoil which can create a vacuum which will not be in the interest of short- or long-term stability in Bangladesh as well as the region.
Presently the armed forces have taken the lead in establishment of an interim government and restoration of order.
The end goal is hopefully return of a democratically elected government in an exercise where the will of the people is reflected.
For now, this is many steps away, here is a review of some of the markers involved towards the same
Firstly, the advisers to the government sworn headed by Professor Mohammad Yunus denotes an attempt to include experts with varied experience from the banking, legal, foreign service, military veterans and rights organisations.
These are all respected in their own sphere of activity and also have the confidence of Professor Yunus who is heading the interim government as well as possibly the Army. The breakdown of the expert advisers is as given below: -
Banking and Financial sector 2
Legal – 1 including one Environmental Lawyer
Military Veterans – 2
Foreign service -2
Rights Activist-2
Election monitor- 1
Academic - 3
Student Leaders- 2
Minority - 2
Restoration of Law and Order
Notable is the lack of a veteran police and law and order enforcement expert even as the requirement for restoration of writ of law in the immediate term is paramount. Possibly the Army jointly with the Border Guards Bangladesh and the police is planning to take over this responsibility directly.
Several jail breaks reported and attacks on the Awami League cadres is another common occurrence which needs to be controlled instead of setting up a spiral of retribution.
Another exception in the advisors is low representation of the minority community even as there are several attacks reported on these in the past few days including on religious places.
This is likely to lead to an exodus on the Indian borders which is best avoided by ensuring security for the minorities. Security of Indian nationals including officials is paramount.
Moreover, Awami League cadres are upset with the sudden departure of Sheikh Hasina which some have connotated as a coup by the opposition parties supported by the military.
Resumption of protests by these is expected to create challenges for the interim administration.
An effective resumption of law and order and enforcement of the state authority is the first step for stability which at present is lacking.
Resumption of Economic Activity
With assurance of safety and security, resumption of normal economic activity will be forthcoming as at present uncertainty and random attacks is preventing the same.
Having restored normalcy the state can look beyond at other parameters of governance which will be the charter of Professor Hassan and his advisers with the end state being holding free and fair polls.
This will be a long process for now as governance issues including foreign relations and diplomacy, will have to be given priority.
Diplomacy and Foreign Relations
Relations with India will dictate how far the Hasina legacy in terms of economic and trade engagement if not political can continue to provide a benefit to the people and economy of the country.
While there are reports of external stakeholders varying from the United States to China and Pakistan seeking a large space where this undermines India’s interests New Delhi is likely to step in.
"The anti-India forces are already very active, and with Awami League out of power, the ISI is now free to supply as many weapons as it wants to the anti-India forces." Sajeeb Wazed Joy told the PTI in an interview.
India’s minimalist goals will be as specified by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his tweet welcoming the head of the interim administration, "My best wishes to Professor Muhammad Yunus on the assumption of his new responsibilities. We hope for an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities. India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfill the shared aspirations of both our peoples for peace, security and development."
Another facet is denial of support to militant groups in the North East which was another important action by Sheikh Hasina that had enamoured India, a reversal of the policy will invite New Delhi’s disapproval.
Continued trade and economic engagement including transit will need emphasis
As far as maximalist goals of opening of through links land and sea to the North East, may suffer a setback for now hopefully temporarily.
Internal Political Space
The next stage will be shaping the internal political space. The Awami League is on the backfoot but is not marginalized on the other hand the opposition led by the BNP appears to see an advantage with plans of exiled Vice President Tarique Rehman attempting to return to the country.
How the military shapes this space is unclear as despite wanting Hasina to leave the country there are loyalists who would not like completely undermining of the Awami League which is also not desirable.
Awami League President and former prime minister Sheikh Hasina will return to Bangladesh once democracy is restored, her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy has told the PTI, though an immediate possibility is unlikely.
"You cannot exclude the Awami League and have a representative democracy in Bangladesh ever. Whatever his (Muhammad Yunus) personal views are, he has said that he wants a government of unity and wants to move forward and not let the mistakes of the past cloud over the future. I hope he stays true to his word," Joy said in the interview with the PTI which remains an important factor which cannot be ignored.
There is expected to be a breach between the Army and the Awami League.
Third force as the Jatiya party may emerge as an alternative.
How the fundamentalist right-wing parties as the Jamaat play their cards in the new environment of “freedom,” remains to be seen.
Conclusion
In sum the interim administration has a tall order ahead and would have to undertake a series of steps broadly outlined herein to sustain the economic legacy of Sheikh Hasina of high GDP growth while creating true democratic space for the people shedding the bane of legacy politics.
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