The collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria in less than two weeks under the onslaught of Mohammad al-Jolani's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has led to speculation as to who is next.
There is a sense of déjà vu with Afghanistan in 2021 when the Taliban advanced rapidly to Kabul forcing the Republic President Ashraf Ghani to get away in a helicopter.
Regimes as that of Assad collapse for varied reasons. To see who is next there is a need for examine the reasons for the fall of Assad.
Four Reasons why Assad Regime Collapsed?
Four reasons are attributed to the collapse of the Syrian regime – repressive government of the al Assad’s with lack of popular support, a weakened Syrian Arab Army, diversion of allies - Iran and Russia and debilitation of the Hezbollah in Lebanon. These provided an opportunity to the Assad’s opponents the HTS and other stakeholders as Turkey.
After escalation of Israel’s campaign in Gaza followed by Lebanon and exchange of missiles with Iran, the focus of Tehran was on protection of the country as well as its core elites including the Supreme Authority the Ayatollah Ali Khamanei rather than expecting who's next and propping up Assad.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] faced opprobrium at home due to failure to sustain the Hezbollah in Lebanon whose leadership was progressively decapacitated with Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah leading.
IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qani was not seen publicly after October for mysterious reasons. Some Iranian sources claimed that he had been compromised by Israel.
Without the Quds Force command and the Hezbollah multiple militias that had propped up the Syrian Arab Army in the past could not be mobilized in time to support Assad’s forces.
Russia was embroiled fully in the Ukraine War and thus Syria was a side show.
The rapidity of the advance against his collapsing army meant that Assad had no option but to be flown out by Russia.
Given these dynamics one could examine which regimes are facing a similar predicament across the Asian landscape.
Iran Possibility
The possibility of Iran is being bandied about. Internal political instability and advance age of the Supreme Authority are two factors that can be debilitating for Tehran.
Commanders from Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been angrily blaming one another for the collapse of Assad's regime – a division that could be fratricidal.
Internally, Iran is hollowed out due to severe economic challenges and a confrontation on issues such as enforcement of the hijab and other restrictive laws.
However, the IRGC and the internal Basij militia remain loyal to the Supreme Authority and will strongly resist any civil insurrection. Widespread civilian casualties may not deter the Iranian security to enforce a crackdown.
Russia is also likely to react strongly as the loss of Tehran will be particularly galling for Moscow. China’s responses may also favour Iran.
Given the advanced age of Ayatollah Khamanei in case of his decapacitation instability during the period of succession is one period of volatility that can be envisaged in Iran. This will certainly have a tipping effect in the short to medium term.
Myanmar
Another state in Asia facing instability and which may see the possibility of collapse is Myanmar where the military if facing a civil war.
Myanmar military has lost much of the periphery across the arc from the Shan States in the East Northwards to Kachin, Chin and Rakhine state with interposing Sagaing Region also under stress.
The military however is holding on the central Irrawaddy Valley and of late China has come out strongly to support the regime bearing down on the ethnic armed groups for a cease fire in the Northern Shan States. China is also seeking the Kachin groups to similarly retract their forces to save the Myanmar Army which has been hollowed out on the periphery.
Collapse of the Myanmar regime could occur if there is a rebellion by the Senior commanders against the Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing or a surge of coordinated violence by the People’s Defence Forces [PDF] who are attempting to gain control of multiple areas in the Irrawaddy Valley particularly in the North and East. So far these efforts are not coordinated within as well as with the EAOs thus can be defeated by the military.
Myanmar’s people are enfeebled by the last half a decade of wars and the country geographically is not vulnerable to a mass uprising but for cities as Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw – the capital.
Attempts to decapitate General Min Aung Hlaing have also been made in the past through drone strikes but were at best amateurish.
Avoiding the Inevitable
Countries which are politically or militarily fragile would possibly learn the right lessons and review their readiness to stand by the people and focus on delivering economic and public goods rather than attempt purely regime survival by strengthening the military.
Partners of these be it Iran or Myanmar need to emphasise on reconciliation with the antagonists be it internal or external rather than prompting escalation or taking sides and weakening the opposition. Selecting what is good for the people of the respective countries should be the goal.
In the case of Myanmar at least China’s attempts to coerce the resistance and support the military may end up in prolonging the conflict thus defeating the very purpose for which Beijing is aligning with forces which are opposed to the people.
In the case of Iran the internal dynamics are complex and an external actor will be unable to transform the situation short of declaring war – for instance Israel or the United States. If these do so there may be greater instability.]
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