A review of PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine and the buzz about negotiations explored against backdrop of the Kursk operation.
Weeks after Ukraine launched a combined arms “maneouvre,” which could now be even called as an offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast [region] with impact spreading to other neighbouring Oblasts, Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi is set to visit Kyiv on August 23 with an initial call in Poland.
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi will visit Poland on 21-22 August 2024. This will be the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Poland in the past 45 years said a Ministry of External Affairs Press Release.
“Thereafter, Prime Minister will travel to Ukraine. This will be the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine after establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1992. Prime Minister’s engagements in Kyiv will touch a range of aspects of bilateral ties including political, trade, economic, investments, education, cultural, people-to-people exchanges, humanitarian assistance and others. Prime Minister will also interact with Indian community, including students during the visit. PM’s landmark visit to Ukraine will help further consolidation and expansion of bilateral ties,” the release added.
August 23 is also the Ukraine Flag Day thus there is more than symbolism to the Indian Prime Minister’s visit and meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
There is speculation on the intent of the Ukraine offensive, the first land incursion of Russia after the Second World War but President Zelensky has described the same as an attempt to create a, “buffer zone”.
In military operational terms a buffer zone provides depth to own areas against an offensive – maneouvre and.or fire assaults of the enemy.
Politically it could also imply a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Russia.
The Indian Prime Minister’s visit has raised speculation of attempts to propose talks particularly with India’s proximate relations with Russia including a Modi Putin bonhomie. PM Modi has also held several conversations with President Zelensky on telephone and in person.
Outlining the underlying tone and tenor of the visit, Shri Tanmaya Lal, Secretary (West) of the Ministry of External Affairs in a press briefing on August 19 said, “India has maintained a very clear and consistent position that diplomacy and dialogue can resolve this conflict and which can lead to enduring peace. So dialogue is absolutely essential. Lasting peace can only be achieved through options that are acceptable to both parties. And it can only be a negotiated settlement”.
“On our part, India continues to engage with all stakeholders. Prime Minister Modi has had conversations with leaders of both Russia and Ukraine, as you know. And Prime Minister had also visited Russia recently. India is willing to provide all possible support and contribution required to help find peaceful solutions to this complex issue,” he added.
But Mr Lal was cautious and said, “And at this stage, it is not for us to anticipate or prejudge what the outcome of these discussions will be between the leaders of India and Ukraine”.
“I think we have a substantive and independent engagement with both Ukraine and Russia. And I will leave it at that,” he said, “I would like to say that this is not a zero-sum game,”.
Having recognized the complexity of the geopolitical formulations of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, India is adopting a guarded approach merely reaching out to both sides.
Moreover, with the Ukrainin offensive in Kursk, this may not be a propitious moment for mediating negotiations as Russia would not do welcome the same being perceived to be on the backfoot and Ukraine will be seen as speaking from a position of strength.
As other major geopolitical players are also in the game so to say such as China and the United States will the field be open to India to be the mediator remains to be seen?
Suffice to say an attempt to reach out to both sides – Ukraine and Russia at the leadership level is a move that is worth the effort for Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Kyiv.
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