After four and a half decades of violent turmoil, people of Afghanistan in the past three and a half years have experienced greater degree of physical security. Yet under the Taliban, which the United Nations refers to as De facto Authority and the regime in Kabul calls itself Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, men and particularly women have been deprived of personal freedoms and anachronism in the 21st Century. Millions continue to suffer from hunger and children from malnutrition. Security is assuming a different connotation for the multitudes. This comes about as concerns of the country’s ungoverned spaces providing sanctuaries to global and regional terrorist groups are voiced in multiple forums. Thus, despite the geopolitical flux with ongoing wars in multiple continents what lies ahead in Afghanistan should be of concern globally and regionally.
Towards this end a survey of trends based is carried out to forecast the trajectory of international and regional relations, internal political developments, security and defence and economy in Afghanistan in the short term.
In terms of international relations, Taliban’s unwillingness to accede to Universal Human Rights and formation of an inclusive government implies formal recognition remains distant. Yet quasi recognition is expected to facilitate formal and informal interaction with the regime based on interests of the stakeholders. The humanitarian support to the Afghan people will remain steadfast with United Nations and Europe in the lead. On the regional front relations with Pakistan will remain tense essentially due to support of the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan [TTP] which has escalated attacks in that country in the recent past. Concurrent multiple coercive responses by Islamabad portends a dark future ahead. Iran, China, Central Asia and India will engage with Kabul essentially for expanding trade, economic relations and assistance while being wary of flow of terrorism, drugs and illegal migrants.
On the political front, the atypical Sharia intermixed with the Pashtun code of conduct adopted by the Taliban as an edit implies rigorous conservative controls on society are likely to continue despite the adverse fallout faced internationally. The first embers of dissent within the higher leadership are evident, in turn as the central clerical order based in Kandahar is expected to tighten control further, this may appear to create ferment in the days ahead. The political opposition to the Taliban remains weak and divided and is unlikely to pose immediate challenge to the regime in Kabul.
On the internal security front, global Islamist and Afghan nationalist terrorist groups are active they lack the capability to pose an existential threat to the Taliban and thus a strategy of denial will remain the norm. Territorial sovereignty through border defence and counter terrorism will be the main tasks for the military in transition from a guerrilla to a professional fighting force with deeply ingrained conservative Islamist ideology.
The economy is a weak spot having suffered the pangs of collapse; recovery will remain slow with the Taliban striving hard to encourage investments and kick start infrastructure and transit projects. With a weak fundamental structure growth and wellbeing of the people will remain at best plodding. As an outcome, humanitarian concerns in the country are expected to rise with conditions fast deteriorating in the coming year as climate change will add to the pain of the masses.
Note This is an executive summary of Forecast March 2025, email officemail@security-risks.com if interested in the full paper
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