Nuclear and Missile as element of national security and geo-politics has of late emerged in multiple dimensions. Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is designed to ensure international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation while Missile Technology Control Regime is a mechanism that will see control over development of missiles and transfer of technologies. The fact that India and Pakistan are non-signatories of the NPT has created a major concern for escalation in varied dimensions. While India is an adherent to the No First Use (NFU). With two successive defence ministers raising doubts over nuclear No First Use (NFU) there were some concerns of India moving towards cultivated ambiguity or preparing for adopting a launch-on-warning option as a modified NFU against Pakistan’s possible first strike nuclear attack as is the professed yet unstated doctrine of the country.There is difference of opinion in nuclear experts on the value of ambiguity in deterrence.Thomas Schelling the believes that uncertainty and ambiguity as good for deterrence. Deterrence works best in case the adversary is confused over the uncertainty in response which case deterrence is strengthened. Thus the adversary is forced to deliberate on a nuclear first strike as it is uncertain how the enemy may respond.However Herman Kahn, believes that deterrence works best when the adversary understands full consequences of an attack.Kahn believes that certainty supports deterrence as it will prevent an opponent who is prone to take chance or one who is proud to undertake a nuclear strike. Nevertheless it is apparent that the NFU and Credible minimum deterrence remains the cornerstone of stability in the region.
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S R Monitor, Security Risks, Scott Snyder and 19 others
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