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Strategic, business and personal risk mitigation and capacity building through information and knowledge based processes in the Indo Asia Pacific.
Geopolitical Trends

About

Geopolitical trends covers key developments in geopolitics, the art and science of deciphering the influence in the traditional sense of geography on power relationships between states. Apart from geography today the phrase also includes technology, economy, diplomacy and development. Thus the phrase originally used as per Encyclopaedia Britannica by the Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellén about the turn of the 20th century has attained added significance given the spread of globalisation. Geopolitics is also a synonym for international politics
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1066 articles in this category
Written by S R Research, S R Monitor, S Raja Reddy and 76 others

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Disaster Risks
Disaster Risks assume importance as the Indo Pacific is vulnerable to a large number of disasters. The frequency of disasters is increasing in India and globally. The disasters pose a serious threat to India’s economy, its population and sustainable development. Mitigation of disaster risks assumes importance for which information, awareness and capacity building is the way ahead. Capacity building is an ongoing process that equips officials, stakeholders and community to perform their functions in a better manner during a crisis/disaster. In the process of capacity building, we must include elements of human resource development, i.e., individual training, organizational development such as improving the functioning of groups and organizations and institutional development. Disasters touch multitudes of life across the entire spectrum of our society. It is seen that uniformed forces like NDRF, SDRF, the Armed Forces, CAPF, Police, and Fire & Emergency services often go beyond the call of duty to save lives. The Government’s efforts to mitigate the effects of the disaster and save lives through effective response are often supplemented by the community at large, selfless volunteers, dedicated NGOs, conscientious corporates and academic & research institutions and individuals. A number of volunteers work alongside our relief agencies silently but effectively. They often risk their lives and limb in the service of humanity but their contributions go unacknowledged. Also, the good work by various NGOs, corporate entities and institutions that step up to the call of the hour to augment Government’s response and efforts in aid to the society needs to be recognized.
106 posts in this category
Written by S R Monitor, S R Research, TOH WEN LI and 8 others
Indo Pacific
Indo-Pacific is a construct of the 21st Century having received much attention in the second decade promoted by successive American Presidents, but one that has great resonance for India. One of the reasons why India has embraced the term is because ‘Asia-Pacific’ is seen by many to exclude India, even though China’s rise affects everybody in the region. So, this is a way for India to include itself in the Asia-Pacific, and for the Asia-Pacific to bring India into the mix. This is only natural. Given its geographical location above the Indian Ocean, India’s role cannot be ignored. A country with a vast coastline of 7,500 kilometres and 1,380 islands, more than two million square kilometres of Exclusive Economic Zone, and emerging blue water naval capabilities, will have an important role to play irrespective of geographical or definitional issues. But it should also be noted that the Indo-Pacific plays out almost entirely as a maritime construct rather than a continental one. In one of its earliest articulations, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promoted the Indo-Pacific concept when he addressed a joint session of the Indian Parliament in 2007. As he spoke about the confluence of the two seas, he said “The Pacific and the Indian Oceans are now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity. A ‘broader Asia’ that broke away geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form.” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked about the Indo-Pacific concept recently at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2018. He said: “India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific region is a positive one … India does not see the Indo-Pacific region as a strategy or as a club of limited members. Nor as a grouping that seeks to dominate. And by no means do we consider it as directed against any country.” [Source World Economic Forum Website]
121 posts in this category
Written by S R Research, S R Monitor, Rahul Bhonsle and 10 others
Information and Media
Information and media is the new buzz. Proliferation of information and media networks has led to an emerging field related to security where manipulation of political messages, memes and videos has soared as political parties hire hundreds of cyber warriors to run their social media cells and motivate tens of thousands of volunteers to target the over 300 million who use Facebook and about 240 million on WhatsApp.Fake news and hyper nationalist videos and texts proliferated to unprecedented levels in the aftermath of recent tensions between India and Pakistan following a suicide bombing in Indian Kashmir, say fact checkers. Of greatest worry are those that have the potential to trigger communal tensions. A recent video falsely showed a mock drill at a temple in Gujarat as an incident involving two terrorists.“We are working hard to fight the spread of false news on the platform through a combination of technology and human review,” Facebook said in a recent press release. It has partnered with seven media groups and fact checking organizations to counter false news and ramped up efforts to block fake accounts. Indeed even as fact checkers work overtime, cyber experts say they lack the capacity and speed to check the fake news that proliferates on social media. WhatsApp efforts to limit the spread of misinformation by restricting forwards in India has been easily circumvented by political parties who use their army of volunteers to create tens of thousands of groups on the messaging platform that is hugely popular among Indians. Instagram is the latest social media platform being used to target young, first-time voters who number 90 million. [Source VOA News]
69 posts in this category
Written by Regina Mihindukulasuriya, S R Research, Rahul Bhonsle and 15 others
Nuclear and Missile
Nuclear and Missile as element of national security and geo-politics has of late emerged in multiple dimensions. Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is designed to ensure international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation while Missile Technology Control Regime is a mechanism that will see control over development of missiles and transfer of technologies. The fact that India and Pakistan are non-signatories of the NPT has created a major concern for escalation in varied dimensions. While India is an adherent to the No First Use (NFU). With two successive defence ministers raising doubts over nuclear No First Use (NFU) there were some concerns of India moving towards cultivated ambiguity or preparing for adopting a launch-on-warning option as a modified NFU against Pakistan’s possible first strike nuclear attack as is the professed yet unstated doctrine of the country.There is difference of opinion in nuclear experts on the value of ambiguity in deterrence.Thomas Schelling the believes that uncertainty and ambiguity as good for deterrence. Deterrence works best in case the adversary is confused over the uncertainty in response which case deterrence is strengthened. Thus the adversary is forced to deliberate on a nuclear first strike as it is uncertain how the enemy may respond.However Herman Kahn, believes that deterrence works best when the adversary understands full consequences of an attack.Kahn believes that certainty supports deterrence as it will prevent an opponent who is prone to take chance or one who is proud to undertake a nuclear strike. Nevertheless it is apparent that the NFU and Credible minimum deterrence remains the cornerstone of stability in the region. 
125 posts in this category
Written by S R Monitor, Security Risks, Scott Snyder and 19 others
Regional Security
Regional security covers the geopolitics, diplomacy, security and defence issues related to South Asia, the sub-region synonymous with Indian sub-continent has India at the center and surrounded by Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka Myanmar and Maldives as the spokes. This has been in the focus of world attention in recent years due to a number of factors thus greater information of the trends and projections assumes importance. This entails dynamic inter-play of security, economic and diplomatic factors reinforcing each other owing to the complex nature of territorial claims and religious extremist activities. This is evidenced by the competing political and strategic interests between the three nuclear weapon countries of the region viz: China, India and Pakistan. Importantly the lack of agreed boundaries between the three states is one of the key challenges for regional security. In fact, the region has witnessed three major wars between India and Pakistan and one between India and China besides several other border skirmishes on and off at various times including the ongoing India – China border row in Sikkim and hence convulsed in tensions and mutual mistrust and animosity leading to frequent threat of war or near war situations affecting regional security and stability. The U.S strategic tie-up with India, viewed by many as one aimed against China and conducting joint naval exercises with India in the Indian Ocean region coupled with the role played by Russia vis-à-vis China and India have gone to add a new dimension making security and stability even more entangled with extra-regional powers. [Source- Based on Springer Open – Regional Security Dynamics of South Asia]
381 posts in this category
Written by S R Research, S R Monitor, Security Risks and 47 others
Space and Cyber Security
Space and cyber security are separate domains as well as intricately linked. Over several years there has been substantial interest in the issues of cyber security and space security as per Chatham House. Almost all modern military engagements rely on space-based assets, but cyber vulnerabilities can undermine confidence in the performance of strategic systems. For example, global communication infrastructures are at least partly dependent on the intersection of cyber and space technologies for international transmission and connection. In addition to longitude, latitude, and altitude, GPS satellites provide timing functions that are crucial to the efficiency of financial networks and even electrical power grids. Similarly, much of the western defence infrastructure is highly dependent on smooth functioning in both environments. Other regions of the world are less advanced but may be less vulnerable in this regard and that in itself may create instabilities and enable highly disruptive and asymmetric attacks as per Chatham House. Space and cyber security has assumed importance in the context of developments in multiple arenas across the World and not just the military domain. Today’s banking, ecommerce, payments and supply chain is managed over communications medium driven by cyber developments and having a critical space component. Meanwhile the French diplomatic office has outlined, that new destructive practices are developing in cyber space, including criminal use of the Internet (cyber crime), including for terrorist purposes; large-scale propagation of false information and manipulation; espionage for political or economic ends; and attacks on critical infrastructure (transport, energy, communication, etc.) for the purposes of sabotage.[Sources as mentioned].  
71 posts in this category
Written by S R Monitor, S R Research, Jeraldine Yap and 16 others
Terrorism
Terrorism remains a major concern in South Asia. The Easter Sunday multiple terror strikes in Sri Lanka on 21 April 2019 claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and al Shams (ISIS) known variously as the IS, ISIL or Daesh has once again raised the spectre threat of global terrorism in South Asia. While the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan and Pakistan is well known where the group has established a strong footprint in the tribal belt, despite announcing very boldly an ISIS Khorasan which included India and Bangladesh, the Group had failed to make an impact in the region. However, there have been a number of individuals who have been indoctrinated by the ISIS ideology in India for instance some of whom have even travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight with the group. The per capita contribution to the group from Maldives for instance has been the highest. ISIS had a small branch in Kashmir which has been neutralised and has also claimed attacks by regional groups such as the Neo Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh [JMB] in Bangladesh and National TowheethJamaath in Sri Lanka, but the physical presence of the group in large numbers is non-existent.Lacking a physical presence in South Asia less Afghanistan and Pakistan, ISIS has used the affiliate model to expand presence in the region. In Bangladesh the attack on 01 July 2016 at Holey Bakery resulting in over 20 deaths mainly foreigners was carried out by the Neo Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and was soon claimed by the ISIS.  
181 posts in this category
Written by S Raja Reddy, Security Risks, S R Monitor and 24 others
West Asia
West Asia popularly known as Middle East a region with extensive economic potential due to energy riches is also the vortex of instability due to multiple conflicts
152 posts in this category
Written by S R Monitor, S R Research, Parisa Hafezi and 18 others

Posts

U.S. China contestations and Myanmar
S R Research
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India Still Part of Iran Railway Connectivity Project?
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Iran China Deal & India’s Chabahar Plans
S R Monitor
Jul 22, 2020
less than 1 min read
Japan White Paper 2020: Indian Perspectives
S R Monitor
Jul 17, 2020
less than 1 min read
Japan Defense White Paper 2020 I Explained I India Japan
S R Monitor
Jul 17, 2020
less than 1 min read
Japan Defense White Paper 2020 – Preliminary Review
S R Research
Jul 15, 2020
3 min read
Iran Israel shadow war set to intensify -cyber, rockets and more
S R Research
Jul 10, 2020
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Post US Taliban Agrimo Profile of Terrorist Groups in Afghanistan
Security Risks
Jul 04, 2020
4 min read
Can “Reformed Multilateralism,” Be India’s Foreign Policy Response to China?
Rahul Bhonsle
Jun 30, 2020
7 min read
How the World’s largest Slum Dharavi Successfully Managed COVID 19?
S R Monitor
Jun 26, 2020
4 min read
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